Welcome to the new
First and Thirty
Not sure who to bet this Sunday?
We handicap every game, every week. And we do it all for free.
We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.
Insight on our picks
Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.
DAL @ LAC
KC @ BAL
TEN @ SEA
MIN @ ARI
Week 2 Quantitative Model Output
BUF @ MIA
HOU @ CLE
CIN @ CHI
NYG @ WAS
NE @ NYJ
NO @ CAR
DEN @ JAX
LV @ PIT
ATL @ TB
SF @ PHI
LAR @ IND
DET @ GB
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
KC and TB are more or less interchangeable at 1 and 2. Last week KC was 1, this week it's TB.
Kansas City Chiefs
At the very least, I appreciate the highly entertaining game from Monday.
Convincing win over Indy.
Los Angeles Rams
The Matthew Stafford era gets off to a hot start.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston: 14/20, 148 yards, 5 TDs, 0 picks, 89.5 PFF grade. He is on pace for 85 TDs. I thought the Saints hall of fame quarterback retired?
Sorry Bills mafia, but if you want to hold onto a top 5 spot you can't lose at home to Pittsburgh.
Green Bay Packers
Was moving them from 3 to 8 harsh enough? Because that game was pretty fucking brutal.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel, my goodness.
Cameron Heyward racked up 12 pressures in week 1. That is a large number of pressures.
The Vikings are desperate for a third option at receiver, and maybe they have something in KJ Osborn.
You get one of those games, Greg Zuerlein
Hanging in tight without Odell in Kansas City isn't a bad result.
I'm still having dreams about that Kyler to Christian Kirk touchdown pass.
I see you, Teddy. Not bad.
New England Patriots
Fumble less. That's my advice.
Not an ideal start for Tua, despite the win.
Las Vegas Raiders
I, for one, don't think 18 targets to Darren Waller was enough.
Washington Football Team
I'm stunned the defensive line couldn't do more vs Los Angeles.
Carson Wentz picked up where he left off.
Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase. Get used to it.
I promise to move you further up the ranks when you start the best quarterback on your roster.
At 89.5, Jalen Hurts had the 3rd highest PFF grade of the week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen is still a target hog.
Sam Darnold is no longer seeing ghosts.
New York Giants
I have nothing nice to say.
Maybe 27 is harsh, but that was a fuck show at home against the Cardinals.
Spin zone: you can't blow double digit 4th quarter leads when you lose 32-6.
Trevor Lawrence, not a great start.
The only team in the NFL to not have a single wide receiver on their roster.
They even suck at tanking.
New York Jets
Corey Davis is good, at least?
These are the people who do the things
Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest
NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer