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Week 13 Quantitative Model Output
spreads as of 11/30/21 @ 6:11 PM
LAC @ CIN
DAL @ NO
DEN @ KC
MIN @ DET
JAX @ LAR
SF @ SEA
NE @ BUF
PHI @ NYJ
BAL @ PIT
TB @ ATL
ARI @ CHI
WAS @ LV
NYG @ MIA
IND @ HOU
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Prior to Week 13. The rankings are meant to be predictive, and are used to feed our model. I don't even look at win/loss record. They are the unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ron Gronkowski is officially back, but Antonio Brown still has another two weeks before he returns.
New England Patriots
The knock on the Patriots has been their schedule, which has been 3rd easiest in the league, per Football Outsiders. They'll finally get a real test against Buffalo on Monday Night. A Titans team without Henry, Brown, and Julio does not count.
We needed Josh Allen to have a bad game. He averaged 9.3 yards per attempt and threw for 4 TDs instead. What a jerk.
What do the Cardinals look like with Kyler and Nuke Hopkins? I honestly forget.
Kansas City Chiefs
Per Football Outsiders, Kansas City has had the 3rd toughest schedule so far and has the 25th toughest remaining. It's time to make up for some early season losses.
Green Bay Packers
Preston Smith has 36 pressures on the season. 21 of those have come in his last 3 games.
This offense needs Amari and CeeDee back STAT.
San Francisco 49ers
I lost many bets last week, but easily hit Kyle Juszczyk over receiving prop. That man has never let anybody down.
Los Angeles Rams
Thus far, Von Miller hasn't helped one bit. I don't expect that to continue, but I'm pointing it out nonetheless.
The Colts took a tough L to the Bucs, but they hung tough and Carson Wentz played well. Not the worst result.
Ok, you beat the struggling Browns. Lamar needs to cool it with the interceptions, though. He has 7 turnover worthy plays in his last 3 games.
DeVante Adams is the best receiver in football. Is Justin Jefferson the second best?
How bad was the pass game last week? Philly ran the ball 31 times for 208 yards (6.7 average) and only scored 7 points.
Sunday Night's game was pure comedy.
New Orleans Saints
It's time for Taysom Hill, because why the fuck not.
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen on if Herbert throws too hard: "If he throws it too hard, go out there and turn the JUGS machine up and get ready to catch the fastball. He throwing the ball to you, you better catch it. Shit. I want the ball. Throw that motherfucker however you wanna throw it."
Ok, it's officially time to panic on Russ. It's not just his accuracy, but his decision making is flat out poor. He has a 43.4 passing grade from PFF since returning.
Fortunately for the Titans, the Colts lost. Per Football Outsider's, they have a 91.7% chance to win the division. Get healthy and survive. For now, they just aren't good with the offense as banged up as it is.
A total beatdown on the Steelers is impressive, but this team needs to be more consistent.
An excellent win over the Chargers, but what is up with Courtland Sutton? He had another stinker: just 2 catches for 17 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders
DeSean Jackson is good for one of those games a year (3 catches, 102 yards, 1 TD). That's where he's at.
Washington Football Team
Jonathan Allen continues to shine, even with Chase Young hurt. He's an All Pro contender.
This offensive line is a disaster, but it isn't for lack of trying. Austin Jackson (18th overall selection in 2020), Liam Eichenberg (2nd round rookie), and Robert Hunt (2nd round rookie) are all starting and playing horribly. They need these guys to develop, and fast.
You played in a game with the Dolphins and didn't have the best offensive line on the field.
New York Giants
A solid performance by the pass defense against the Eagles -- safety Xavier McKinney earned a PFF grade of 92.2.
I want Justin Fields back. At least watching him develop is something.
Cordarrelle Patterson is a God.
You want more from Trevor Lawrence, but with the weapons and offensive line surrounding him, I'm not sure how much more we can expect.