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Super Bowl Sunday
No spread bets- enjoy the games. Check the blog for Brady's blogs.
Super Bowl Sunday Quantitative Model Output
spreads as of 01/24/22 6:10PM
CIN @ LAR
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Final rankings for the 2021 season. The rankings are meant to be predictive and injury adjusted, and are used to feed our model. I don't even look at win/loss record. They are the unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams.
The Bills should be a SB contender again in 2022, but they have some interesting decisions to consider with Jerry Hughes, Manny Sanders, Harrison Phillips, and Levi Wallace all free agents. They could also cut Cole Beasley and save 6.1 million on the cap, a move that they should consider given they're projected cap space is in the red.
Kansas City Chiefs
The acquisition of Melvin Ingram was integral in pulling the defense from bottom tier to mediocre. With Ingram set to hit free agency, the Chiefs need to find answers to help the pass rush.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady retired. AB quit. Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Jansen, Alex Cappa, Carlton Davis, and Jordan Whitehead are all free agents. The 2022 Bucs could be a very different team in a very bad way.
Los Angeles Rams
Mid season acquisitions Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr are both free agents. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl champs are projected to be 13.7 mil over the cap.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 31st in projected cap space at -50.8m and have to make a decision on free agent DaVante Adams (hint: they'll franchise him). Oh yeah, and there's the Aaron Rodgers thing.
The Cowboys are another team in a tough cap situation (projected 21.7 mil over), but their free agent list isn't too scary.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have two goals this offseason: find a true #1 receiver and lock up JC Jackson. Neither will be easy.
San Francisco 49ers
Trading Jimmy G could free up 26 mil in cap space. It's time to see why they traded up to draft Trey Lance 3rd overall.
Will the Colts move on from Carson Wentz? And if so, who the fuck are they going to get?
For the love of God, fix that defensive line.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have an interesting decision to make with soon to be free agent WR Mike Williams.
The defending AFC Champs have the cap space to do whatever the fuck they want. I can't be sure, but some pass protection for Joe Burrow is a potential idea.
With Harold Landry set to hit free agency and Bud Dupree already looking like the bust we all thought he is, the Titans have to make some decision to shore up the pass ruhs.
The Eagles need help on defense, but they have 3 first round picks in the 2022 draft.
Arizona has very little money to spend, a disastrous cornerback room, and Chandler Jones hitting free agency.
Bryce Callahan is one of the more underrated corners in football. Lock that man up.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are in salary cap jail. They're projected to be at 76 mil over, which is the worst situation in the league. Jameis is a free agent. The interior of the line was a disaster and all-world LT Terron Armstead is a free agent. Things could get ugly.
If only they could get a quality receiver like Odell Beckham Jr.
Minnesota has lots of areas to improve on, very little cash, and Kirk Cousins taking up 45 mil in cap space. Cousins is a very good quarterback, but Minnesota has some tough decisions to make.
Las Vegas Raiders
Assuming Josh McDaniels wants to continue a zone heavy scheme in Vegas, they need to bring back Casey Hayward Jr.
The offensive line should be priority number 1 in the offseason. They've invested heavily on improving the line via the draft, but unfortunately none of them have worked out.
In the end, injuries crippled the Ravens. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey should both return from injury, and suddenly the secondary is good again. However, they need depth. They cannot allow last season to happen again.
2020 5th rounder Darnell Mooney improved greatly over his rookie season. He'll be fun to watch with (a hopefully healthy) Fields next season. Meanwhile, they have a tough decision to make on free agent WR Allen Robinson. They have plenty of money to spend, but offensive line needs to be a priority.
Ok, they have a team name. Now they just need a functioning stadium and a quarterback.
Ben's storied career should now be over, and now the lack of succession plan should be a top story for the offseason.
At least Cordarrelle Patterson was a fun story. This offeseason won't be. They're in cap jail with a slew of needs.
New York Jets
The Jets offseason moves improved their offensive line greatly. If Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder can stay healthy, they could have a decent receiving core. They also have plenty of money to spend, they should focus on the defense, though clearly additional weapons couldn't hurt.
I am genuinely stunned that this team managed to win 4 games. The roster sucks. Improve every position.
The Lions cannot play with this secondary in 2022 with a straight face. They can't/
They have tons of money to spend and need to improve literally every positions outside of quarterback. The Jags have options.
The Panthers are stuck with Sam Darnold for now. At the very least, they need to improve on the offensive line.
New York Giants
Congrats on getting the GM job, Joe Schoen. I guess? Their roster needs help on both sides of the ball and they have very little money to spend. Good luck, sir.
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NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer