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FIRSTANDTHIRTY.com

  • FIRST AND THIRTY
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    • FIRST AND THIRTY
    • What we do
    • Recommended Wagers
    • Analysis
    • DomModel
    • Power Rankings
    • @FIRSTANDTHIRTY
    • Contributors

FIRSTANDTHIRTY.com

  • FIRST AND THIRTY
  • What we do
  • Recommended Wagers
  • Analysis
  • DomModel
  • Power Rankings
  • @FIRSTANDTHIRTY
  • Contributors
  • …  
    • FIRST AND THIRTY
    • What we do
    • Recommended Wagers
    • Analysis
    • DomModel
    • Power Rankings
    • @FIRSTANDTHIRTY
    • Contributors

FIRSTANDTHIRTY.com

  • FIRST AND THIRTY
  • What we do
  • Recommended Wagers
  • Analysis
  • DomModel
  • Power Rankings
  • @FIRSTANDTHIRTY
  • Contributors
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    • For the 2022 - 2023 NFL season,

      we welcome you to

      FIRST AND THIRTY

      NFL betting, done brilliantly.
    • We handicap every game, every week. And we do it for free.

      Wager Recommendations

      Quantitative handicapping

      We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.

      Weekly Analysis

      Insight on our picks

      Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.

    • Recommended Wagers

      Stay tuned for Week 1 wagers in early September

    • Analysis

    • DomModel

      The robots are getting their brains ready for the 22-23 NFL season.

    • Power Rankings

      Final rankings for the 2021 season. The rankings are meant to be predictive and injury adjusted, and are used to feed our model. I don't even look at win/loss record. They are the unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams.

      1

      Buffalo Bills

      The Bills should be a SB contender again in 2022, but they have some interesting decisions to consider with Jerry Hughes, Manny Sanders, Harrison Phillips, and Levi Wallace all free agents. They could also cut Cole Beasley and save 6.1 million on the cap, a move that they should consider given they're projected cap space is in the red.

      2

      Kansas City Chiefs

      The acquisition of Melvin Ingram was integral in pulling the defense from bottom tier to mediocre. With Ingram set to hit free agency, the Chiefs need to find answers to help the pass rush.

      3

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

      Tom Brady retired. AB quit. Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Jansen, Alex Cappa, Carlton Davis, and Jordan Whitehead are all free agents. The 2022 Bucs could be a very different team in a very bad way.

      4

      Los Angeles Rams

      Mid season acquisitions Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr are both free agents. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl champs are projected to be 13.7 mil over the cap.

      5

      Green Bay Packers

      The Packers are 31st in projected cap space at -50.8m and have to make a decision on free agent DaVante Adams (hint: they'll franchise him). Oh yeah, and there's the Aaron Rodgers thing.

      6

      Dallas Cowboys

      The Cowboys are another team in a tough cap situation (projected 21.7 mil over), but their free agent list isn't too scary.

      7

      New England Patriots

      The Patriots have two goals this offseason: find a true #1 receiver and lock up JC Jackson. Neither will be easy.

      8

      San Francisco 49ers

      Trading Jimmy G could free up 26 mil in cap space. It's time to see why they traded up to draft Trey Lance 3rd overall.

      9

      Indianapolis Colts

      Will the Colts move on from Carson Wentz? And if so, who the fuck are they going to get?

      10

      Seattle Seahawks

      For the love of God, fix that defensive line.

      11

      Los Angeles Chargers

      The Chargers have an interesting decision to make with soon to be free agent WR Mike Williams.

      12

      Cincinnati Bengals

      The defending AFC Champs have the cap space to do whatever the fuck they want. I can't be sure, but some pass protection for Joe Burrow is a potential idea.

      13

      Tennessee Titans

      With Harold Landry set to hit free agency and Bud Dupree already looking like the bust we all thought he is, the Titans have to make some decision to shore up the pass ruhs.

      14

      Philadelphia Eagles

      The Eagles need help on defense, but they have 3 first round picks in the 2022 draft.

      15

      Arizona Cardinals

      Arizona has very little money to spend, a disastrous cornerback room, and Chandler Jones hitting free agency.

      16

      Denver Broncos

      Bryce Callahan is one of the more underrated corners in football. Lock that man up.

      17

      New Orleans Saints

      The Saints are in salary cap jail. They're projected to be at 76 mil over, which is the worst situation in the league. Jameis is a free agent. The interior of the line was a disaster and all-world LT Terron Armstead is a free agent. Things could get ugly.

      18

      Cleveland Browns

      If only they could get a quality receiver like Odell Beckham Jr.

      19

      Minnesota Vikings

      Minnesota has lots of areas to improve on, very little cash, and Kirk Cousins taking up 45 mil in cap space. Cousins is a very good quarterback, but Minnesota has some tough decisions to make.

      20

      Las Vegas Raiders

      Assuming Josh McDaniels wants to continue a zone heavy scheme in Vegas, they need to bring back Casey Hayward Jr.

      21

      Miami Dolphins

      The offensive line should be priority number 1 in the offseason. They've invested heavily on improving the line via the draft, but unfortunately none of them have worked out.

      22

      Baltimore Ravens

      In the end, injuries crippled the Ravens. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey should both return from injury, and suddenly the secondary is good again. However, they need depth. They cannot allow last season to happen again.

      23

      Chicago Bears

      2020 5th rounder Darnell Mooney improved greatly over his rookie season. He'll be fun to watch with (a hopefully healthy) Fields next season. Meanwhile, they have a tough decision to make on free agent WR Allen Robinson. They have plenty of money to spend, but offensive line needs to be a priority.

      24

      Washington Commanders

      Ok, they have a team name. Now they just need a functioning stadium and a quarterback.

      25

      Pittsburgh Steelers

      Ben's storied career should now be over, and now the lack of succession plan should be a top story for the offseason.

      26

      Atlanta Falcons

      At least Cordarrelle Patterson was a fun story. This offeseason won't be. They're in cap jail with a slew of needs.

      27

      New York Jets

      The Jets offseason moves improved their offensive line greatly. If Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder can stay healthy, they could have a decent receiving core. They also have plenty of money to spend, they should focus on the defense, though clearly additional weapons couldn't hurt.

      28

      Houston Texans

      I am genuinely stunned that this team managed to win 4 games. The roster sucks. Improve every position.

      29

      Detroit Lions

      The Lions cannot play with this secondary in 2022 with a straight face. They can't/

      30

      Jacksonville Jaguars

      They have tons of money to spend and need to improve literally every positions outside of quarterback. The Jags have options.

      31

      Carolina Panthers

      The Panthers are stuck with Sam Darnold for now. At the very least, they need to improve on the offensive line.

      32

      New York Giants

      Congrats on getting the GM job, Joe Schoen. I guess? Their roster needs help on both sides of the ball and they have very little money to spend. Good luck, sir.

    • @FIRSTANDTHIRTY

    • Contributors

      These are the people who do the things

      Dom

      Co-founder

      Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest

      Brady

      Co-founder

      NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer

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