Welcome to the new
First and Thirty
Not sure who to bet this Sunday?
We handicap every game, every week. And we do it all for free.
We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.
Insight on our picks
Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.
IND @ TEN
LAC @ KC
Week 3 Quantitative Model Output
CAR @ HOU
WAS @ BUF
GB @ SF
PHI @ DAL
NO @ NE
CHI @ CLE
NYJ @ DEN
TB @ LAR
MIA @ LV
CIN @ PIT
SEA @ MIN
ATL @ NYG
BAL @ DET
ARI @ JAX
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ok, it's only week 3, but freakin Tom Brady is PFF's highest graded quarterback. At this point he's just being selfish.
Kansas City Chiefs
A Monday Night loss doesn't change the fact that this team still has Pat Mahomes. If you power rank based on record, I actively hate you.
Los Angeles Rams
Everything is clicking for the Rams.
Nice win, but the offensive line is an issue.
A rough start for Josh Allen, but second year DE AJ Epenesa looks good off the edge.
Russ Wilson has a 146.9 passing rating.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones with a casual 4 touchdown (3 receiving) on Monday Night. But does it even count if it's against the Lions?
San Francisco 49ers
Trent Williams is still a god damn beast.
New Orleans Saints
Back down to Earth for Jameis & co.
OBJ should return this week, for real this time.
Teddy Bridgewater playing safe, smart, and accurate. A wild departure from the other guy.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones has a 5.7 aDOT, lowest among starting QBs. It appears the Patriots are being careful with the young lad, but it appears to be working.
Tony Pollard is finally getting a chance to show us all what we already knew, that he's the best running back on the team.
Kyler Murray is good at the game.
This could get ugly for Big Ben.
KJ Osborn, week 2 and still a thing. Let's see what happens next.
Las Vegas Raiders
Maxx Crosby is up to 19 pressures, the most in the league (Arik Armstead is second with 15).
Washington Football Team
Taylor Heinicke? I don't hate it.
Per Football Outsider's DVOA, they've been the best team in the league through 2 weeks.
An injury to the starting quarterback forces the Bears to play their best quarterback.
Tua is out with rib injuries, but he was playing horribly anyway.
The offensive line is still an issue.
Carson Wentz on 2 sprained ankles? What could go wrong?
If you're an Eagles fan and Jalen Hurts's play hasn't given you an erection (or the female equivalent), then are you an Eagles fan?
Los Angeles Chargers
Outside of Joey Bosa, this defense is a mess.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones, PFF's second highest graded QB.
Derrick Henry has 52 rushing attempts on this season. There's been two games.
Yeahhhhhh that won't work at all.
Tyrod Taylor has been placed on IR. In comes rookie Davis Mills and everyone's favorite team to pick against in survivor.
Per PFF, Trevor Lawrence has the highest rate of uncatchable passes in the league.
New York Jets
The Jets have been trying to rebuild the offensive line, but without Mekhi Becton it's back to a disaster.
These are the people who do the things
Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest
NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer