• Welcome to the new

      First and Thirty

    • Not sure who to bet this Sunday?

      We handicap every game, every week. And we do it all for free.

      Wager Recommendations

      Quantitative handicapping

      We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.

      Weekly Analysis

      Insight on our picks

      Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.

    • Recommended Wagers

      Week 3

      IND +5.5

      IND @ TEN

      SUN 1:00PM

      $100

      KC -6.5

      LAC @ KC

      SUN 1:00PM

      $100

    • Analysis

    • DomModel

      Week 3 Quantitative Model Output

      IND +5.5

      IND @ TEN

      Strength: 5.19

      HOU +7.5

      CAR @ HOU

      Strength: 4.43

      KC -6.5

      LAC @ KC

      Strength: 4.07

      WAS +8.5

      WAS @ BUF

      Strength: 2.60

      GB +3.5

      GB @ SF

      Strength: 2.40

      DAL -4.0

      PHI @ DAL

      Strength: 2.24

      NO +3.0

      NO @ NE

      Strength: 1.97

      CHI +7.0

      CHI @ CLE

      Strength: 1.64

      DEN -10.5

      NYJ @ DEN

      Strength: 1.64

      LAR +1.0

      TB @ LAR

      Strength: 1.22

      MIA +3.5

      MIA @ LV

      Strength: 0.92

      PIT -3.5

      CIN @ PIT

      Strength: 0.77

      MIN +2.0

      SEA @ MIN

      Strength: 0.76

      NYG -3.0

      ATL @ NYG

      Strength: 0.41

      BAL -8.5

      BAL @ DET

      Strength: 0.13

      JAX +7.0

      ARI @ JAX

      Strength: 0.10

    • Trust the Process

      Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.

    • Power Rankings

      Week 3

      1

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

      Ok, it's only week 3, but freakin Tom Brady is PFF's highest graded quarterback. At this point he's just being selfish.

      2

      Kansas City Chiefs

      A Monday Night loss doesn't change the fact that this team still has Pat Mahomes. If you power rank based on record, I actively hate you.

      3

      Los Angeles Rams

      Everything is clicking for the Rams.

      4

      Baltimore Ravens

      Nice win, but the offensive line is an issue.

      5

      Buffalo Bills

      A rough start for Josh Allen, but second year DE AJ Epenesa looks good off the edge.

      6

      Seattle Seahawks

      Russ Wilson has a 146.9 passing rating.

      7

      Green Bay Packers

      Aaron Jones with a casual 4 touchdown (3 receiving) on Monday Night. But does it even count if it's against the Lions?

      8

      San Francisco 49ers

      Trent Williams is still a god damn beast.

      9

      New Orleans Saints

      Back down to Earth for Jameis & co.

      10

      Cleveland Browns

      OBJ should return this week, for real this time.

      11

      Denver Broncos

      Teddy Bridgewater playing safe, smart, and accurate. A wild departure from the other guy.

      12

      New England Patriots

      Mac Jones has a 5.7 aDOT, lowest among starting QBs. It appears the Patriots are being careful with the young lad, but it appears to be working.

      13

      Dallas Cowboys

      Tony Pollard is finally getting a chance to show us all what we already knew, that he's the best running back on the team.

      14

      Arizona Cardinals

      Kyler Murray is good at the game.

      15

      Pittsburgh Steelers

      This could get ugly for Big Ben.

      16

      Minnesota Vikings

      KJ Osborn, week 2 and still a thing. Let's see what happens next.

      17

      Las Vegas Raiders

      Maxx Crosby is up to 19 pressures, the most in the league (Arik Armstead is second with 15).

      18

      Washington Football Team

      Taylor Heinicke? I don't hate it.

      19

      Carolina Panthers

      Per Football Outsider's DVOA, they've been the best team in the league through 2 weeks.

      20

      Chicago Bears

      An injury to the starting quarterback forces the Bears to play their best quarterback.

      21

      Miami Dolphins

      Tua is out with rib injuries, but he was playing horribly anyway.

      22

      Cincinnati Bengals

      The offensive line is still an issue.

      23

      Indianapolis Colts

      Carson Wentz on 2 sprained ankles? What could go wrong?

      24

      Philadelphia Eagles

      If you're an Eagles fan and Jalen Hurts's play hasn't given you an erection (or the female equivalent), then are you an Eagles fan?

      25

      Los Angeles Chargers

      Outside of Joey Bosa, this defense is a mess.

      26

      New York Giants

      Daniel Jones, PFF's second highest graded QB.

      27

      Tennessee Titans

      Derrick Henry has 52 rushing attempts on this season. There's been two games.

      28

      Atlanta Falcons

      Yeahhhhhh that won't work at all.

      29

      Houston Texans

      Tyrod Taylor has been placed on IR. In comes rookie Davis Mills and everyone's favorite team to pick against in survivor.

      30

      Detroit Lions

      Yikes.

      31

      Jacksonville Jaguars

      Per PFF, Trevor Lawrence has the highest rate of uncatchable passes in the league.

      32

      New York Jets

      The Jets have been trying to rebuild the offensive line, but without Mekhi Becton it's back to a disaster.

    • @FirstAndThirty

    • Contributors

      These are the people who do the things

      Dom

      Co-founder

      Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest

      Brady

      Co-founder

      NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer

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