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First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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First and Thirty
  • First and Thirty

    NFL Betting, done brilliantly.

  • We handicap every game, every week.

    And we do it for free.

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    Wager Recommendations

    Quantitative handicapping

    We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.

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    Weekly Analysis

    Insight on our picks

    Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.

  • Results

    Through the end of Week 12, 2023 Season

    161

    Wins

    139

    Losses

    6

    Pushes

    2.5%

    ROI

    -8.3%

    ROI Lower Limit

    13.2%

    ROI Upper Limit

  • Sharp Picks

    Week 13

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    SEA +9.0

    SEA @ DAL

    TNF 8:15 PM

    Analysis
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    PIT -5.5

    ARI @ PIT

    SUN 1PM

    Analysis
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    NO +4.0

    DET @ NO

    SUN 1PM

    Analysis
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    CIN +8.5

    CIN @ JAX

    MNF 8:15 PM

    Analysis
  • Analysis

    Prop Bets: Week 13
    December 1, 2023
    Brady,Week 13 2023,Prop Bets
    The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site. When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than...
    Recommended Wagers: Week 13 (Part 2)
    December 1, 2023
    Brady,Week 13 2023,Recommended Wager
    Detroit @ New Orleans (+4.0) Power rankings: Detroit 8, New Orleans 14 The Lions offense ranks 6th in DVOA (9th pass, 4th run). Jared Goff is having an efficient season (10th in PFF grades, 12th in ESPN's QBR), playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football and a strong cast of...
    Recommended Wagers: Week 13 (Part 1)
    December 1, 2023
    Brady,Week 13 2023,Recommended Wager
    Seattle (+9.0) @ Dallas Power rankings: Seattle 12, Dallas 4 Hand up on this one. I completely forgot we wagered a Thursday Night game, and so did Dom. I texted Dom as the Cowboys were taking knees that we were 1-0 this week, and he revealed to me that he also completely forgot we had our...
    Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
    November 30, 2023
    Brady,Recap,Week 12 2023
    Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview...
    Prop Bets: Week 12
    November 25, 2023
    Brady,Week 12 2023,Prop Bets
    The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site. When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than...
    More Posts
  • More from First and Thirty

    Take a deep dive into our process.

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    Power Rankings

    The unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams.

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    DomModel

    Our model's prediction for every game, every week.

    Download
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    Detailed Results

    If luck wasn't involved, would we win every time?

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  • @FirstAndThirty

  • Contributors

    These are the people who do the things

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    Dom

    Co-founder

    Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest

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    Brady

    Co-founder

    NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer

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