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spreads as of 1/18/22 5:53 PM
CIN @ TEN
SAT 4:30 PM
SF @ GB
SAT 8:15 PM
Divisional Weekend Quantitative Model Output
spreads as of 01/18/2022 5:53 PM
SF @ GB
CIN @ TEN
LAR @ TB
BUF @ KC
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Prior to the Divisional Round. The rankings are meant to be predictive and injury adjusted, and are used to feed our model. I don't even look at win/loss record. They are the unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams.
That performance was jaw dropping. From Josh Allen to Micah Hyde, holy shit. Well done all around.
Kansas City Chiefs
The 2 seed does get a bye when your first round matchup is with the Steelers.
Green Bay Packers
David Bakhtiari is back. Jaire Alexander, Za'Darius Smith, and Whitney Mercilus are back practicing. This team could be very dangerous.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RT Tristan Wirfs is likely out after suffering a high ankle sprain in the Wildcard Round. Another massive loss for the Bucs.
Dak Prescott had 3 turnover worthy plays in the Wildcard Round. It's not easy to win with such performances.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers had 17 carries to Sony Michel's 13, in the latest example of "Cam Akers is tougher than you are."
New England Patriots
The future may be bright for New England and Mac Jones, but how on earth does a top 5 defense let up a touchdown on every goddamn drive?
San Francisco 49ers
Between Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, the 49ers have unique weapons that teams simply cannot adequately prepare for.
Carson Wentz was determined not start his golf season early.
Ok, Russ Wilson is officially back. Not that it matters, you're eliminated.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert finished with the 6th highest passing grade from PFF. He had the lowest turnover worthy play percentage (1.6%) in the league.
The Titans are a tricky team to rank -- their health improving means they are better than their advanced stats would indicate.
Man coverage, zone coverage, it doesn't matter. Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase can't be stopped.
They were simply overmatched against a better Bucs team, but there's a lot to be happy about for Eagles fans.
Realistically, they weren't going anywhere without DeAndre Hopkins.
Ok, we're done with the Drew Lock debate once and for all, right?
New Orleans Saints
I'd love to see what this team could do with some decent wide receivers, a healthy Jameis, and a healthy Ramczyk/Armstead. The defense is ready to contend.
And now the "what the fuck do we do with Baker" debate begins.
Kirk Cousins is good. This team should be better.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders offense is a different team with Darren Waller on the field.
The offensive line should be priority number 1 in the offseason. They've invested heavily on improving the line via the draft, but unfortunately none of them have worked out.
In the end, injuries crippled the Ravens. They'll be back.
2020 5th rounder Darnell Mooney improved greatly over his rookie season. He'll be fun to watch with (a hopefully healthy) Fields next season.
Washington Football Team
It's back to basics with Washington. Like, literally. They need a name and a functioning stadium.
Ben's storied career should now be over, and now the lack of succession plan should be a top story for the offseason.
At least Cordarrelle Patterson was a fun story.
New York Jets
The Jets offseason moves improved their offensive line greatly. If Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder can stay healthy, Zach Wilson should have all the tools he needs.
I am genuinely stunned that this team managed to win 4 games.
A nice win against the Packers B team. I wonder if they knew they could have had the number 1 pick.
Trevor Lawrence FINALLY played well and they secured the #1 pick. You can't ask for more from week 18.
Robby Anderson was targeted 105 times this year. He only caught 53 balls for 591 yards. What the hell happened?
New York Giants
I can't be certain, but they may need a better backup QB.
These are the people who do the things
Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest
NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer