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First and Thirty
Not sure who to bet this Sunday?
We handicap every game, every week. And we do it all for free.
We leverage advanced NFL statistics alongside our in-house power rankings to handicap every matchup. Then we pick the best bets for your money.
Insight on our picks
Knowing why you're betting is as important as knowing what you're betting. We give you full transparency into each one of our picks.
spreads as of 10/20/21 @ 8:54 PM
ATL @ MIA
SUN 1:00 PM
HOU +18.5 (lol)
HOU @ ARI
SUN 4:25 PM
Week 7 Quantitative Model Output
DEN @ CLE
CAR @ NYG
CHI @ TB
NYJ @ NE
DET @ LAR
KC @ TEN
NO @ SEA
IND @ SF
PHI @ LV
CIN @ BAL
WAS @ GB
Trust the Process
Our approach to selecting weekly NFL wagers combines quantitative statistical modeling with our qualitative team rankings below. For a complete overview of how we select wagers, click here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo and Tampa are neck and neck for the top spot. But Tampa won last week, and Buffalo lost. That's somewhat better than flipping a coin, I suppose.
Los Angeles Rams
There are exactly zero (0) weaknesses on the offensive line.
It's great to see Rashod Bateman on the field. The Ravens need more weapons.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are no longer the best offense in the NFL by EPA. They are also no longer the worst defense in the NFL by EPA. They're sitting at 2 and 31. Big regression stuff, folks.
Kyler Murray has a near perfect 147.3 passer rating when targeting DeAndre Hopkins this season.
Green Bay Packers
Devante Adams, despite only scoring 2 touchdowns, is still the best receiver in football.
Trevon Diggs snags his 7th interception of the season. Interceptions are a crappy way to measure corner play, but that would put him 3rd in the league for ALL OF LAST SEASON.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston, who once threw 30 INTs in a single season, has thrown just 3 this season.
I do my rankings Tuesday, which was before the Baker Mayfield news came out. Otherwise, they'd be ranked much lower.
Kirk Cousins is now 3rd in the NFL in PFF passing grades.
San Francisco 49ers
Regardless of who is playing QB, I want George Kittle back on the field.
Big Ben is now tied with Trevor Lawrence for the most "turnover worthy" plays this season.
Ja'Marr Chase may just run away with offensive rookie of the year.
Xavier Rhodes and his 55.8 PFF grade needs to step it up.
Los Angeles Chargers
Rahsawn Slater and Corey Linsley were exactly what Justin Herbert needed to take the next step.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones continues to make throws. But taking a knee with 90 seconds left in the half is proof that the Patriots don't yet fully trust him.
Can we get Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton on the field together, please?
Derrick Henry is averaging 3.62 yards AFTER contact.
Las Vegas Raiders
Maxx Crosby still leads the league in pressures with 43. Harold Landry and Myles Garrett are 2nd with 35. Crosby is quickly entering the "best pass rushers in football" discussion.
How is it that Justin Fields only had a single rushing attempt last week? It went for 43 yards, though.
Geno Smith gets his first start since 2017. Apparently sitting out that long doesn't help at all.
The Panthers are who we thought they were.
Washington Football Team
Aw man, I miss Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Jason Kelce, aged 33, is still one of the best centers in football.
With Tua back, it feels like Jaylen Waddle serves an actual purpose.
New York Giants
Getting healthier on offense, at least.
The Falcons are well rested after a bye last week. With Calvin Ridley returning, will the Falcons still feature Kyle Pitts?
Jared Goff with no receivers behind a bad offensive line isn't very good, it turns out. TJ Hockenson fucks, though.
Another solid game against the Dolphins. Trevor Lawrence is slowly improving.
New York Jets
New England is slipping, and the Jets are coming off a bye. We may have an actual decent AFC East game coming up, regardless of the quality of play.
Something something Deshaun Watson to the Dolphins rumors.
These are the people who do the things
Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest
NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer