First and Thirty
Updated September 8, 2026
First and Thirty combines three independent point-based measures of NFL team strength: Betting Market, PFF Point Spread Rating, and ESPN FPI.
Each source is centered around league average and weighted equally. A rating of +4.0 means a team is rated approximately four points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. A negative rating means the team is rated below league average.
These ratings are not a predicted margin for every game. Home-field advantage and matchup-specific factors are not represented by the raw team rating.
Source Agreement measures how closely Market, PFF, and FPI rate a team.
High: all three ratings are within 0.50 points. Moderate: the widest gap is between 0.50 and 1.00 points. Low: the widest gap exceeds 1.00 point.
Source Agreement measures disagreement between the inputs, not the probability that a ranking is correct.
This was the best team in the league before the best defensive player of our generation came back from retirement. Adding corners Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie solidified the secondary.
The three sources are within 0.73 points.
The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year and "only" lost RB Kenneth Walker III, EDGE Boye Mafe, and CB Riq Woolen. Unfortunately for them, the Rams had a better offseason.
PFF rates Seahawks 1.59 points higher than FPI.
They still have Josh Allen playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Given the receivers that Allen has been working with post-Diggs, DJ Moore will be a welcome site.
The three sources are within 0.90 points.
The Ravens upgraded both guard spots, bringing in John Simpson (Jets) and Vega Ioane (14th overall, Penn State). They also brought in Trey Hendrickson, on-paper solving their biggest weaknesses. They just need to stay healthy.
All three sources are within 0.30 points.
Fred Warener, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey.. this team is very legit, if (but if) these guys can stay healthy. Regardless of health, the seconadry remains a problem.
The three sources are within 0.62 points.
With C Tyler Biadasz (knee) out for the year, the interior of the offensive line could, yet again, be a problem. It all comes down to how Alt and Slater bounce back from their respective injuries.
The three sources are within 0.76 points.
I hate this offensive line. Matthew Golden has a chance to step into a larger role without Romeo Doubs.
All three sources are within 0.25 points.
With Brian Branch (achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) still hurt, the Lions begin the season with question marks at secondary. Their offensive line has also taken a step back from the Ben Johnson days.
All three sources are within 0.30 points.
The Chiefs lost all their corners to the Rams. As a result, they traded up to draft to 6 to take Mansoor Delane (LSU). Delane needs to be an immediate impact. On offense, we'll see how Mahomes responds to ACL surgery and how Kelce responds to being married. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III will enjoy running behind the Chiefs line.
All three sources are within 0.47 points.
The Eagles traded AJ Brown, but brought in Dontayvion Wicks (Packers), Hollywood Brown (Ravens), and drafted Makai Lemon (20th overall, USC). The secondary, defensive line, and offensive line are all elite.
The three sources are within 0.68 points.
The Patriots are better on-paper. We'll see who they really are - this years schedule is plenty difficult.
PFF rates Patriots 1.59 points higher than FPI.
Every year has been worse than the previous one for CJ Stroud. If he can reverse this trend, the Texans will be tough to beat. I'm afraid for any offense that has to play their defense.
PFF rates Texans 1.38 points higher than FPI.
Bo Nix is playing in front of arguably the best offensive line in football. After bringing in Jaylen Waddle, Nix's own QB play post injury will decide just how good Denver can be. This is a complete football team.
PFF rates Broncos 1.58 points higher than FPI.
The Cowboys continue to rebuild their defensive line in a post Micah Parsons/Demarcus Lawrence world, now brining in Rashan Gary to team up with second year man Donovan Ezeiruaku at EDGE. With Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams in the middle, as well as drafting safety Caleb Downs, I'm surprised to say I actually like the direction the defense is heading.
The three sources are within 0.52 points.
Everyone is aware of how special the offense can be. The only question with the Bears is how they'll perform defensively. The secondary doesn't look great, but it can turn the corner depending on if Jaylon Johnson bounces back, and how rookie Dillon Thieneman plays at safety. I don't have any hope for the pass rush.
All three sources are within 0.49 points.
The Bengals lost Trey Hendrickson (Ravens), their only competent player on the defensive line, but added Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe as well as drafted Cashius Howell. As usual, the offensive line isn't great, and the offense will rely on the Burrow/Chase/Higgins combo.
Market rates Bengals 1.27 points higher than PFF.
Between Brian Thomas Jr, Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers, the Jags have the luxury of playing Travis Hunter as a full-time corner. That said, I'm scared for Trevor Lawrence behind this offensive line.
The three sources are within 0.97 points.
The fake QB battle is over. Time will tell if Kyler Murray is all Justin Jefferson needs to return to receiving dominance.
All three sources are within 0.44 points.
Rueben Bain Jr. (15th overall, Miami) next to Vita Vea could make this defensive line legit for the first time since the Brady Super Bowl years. On offense, Mike Evans (49ers) is no longer, but they've done well in drafting receivers. The only question is health.
The three sources are within 0.66 points.
The contract watch is still on for Joey Porter Jr., and the secondary certainly needs him. As for the offense, DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman should compliment each other well.
All three sources are within 0.39 points.
Jayden Daniels is back, and now he has Stefon Diggs as a number 2 option behind McLauren. The defense is ugly, however.
All three sources are within 0.43 points.
The Colts went all in on WR Alec Pierce this offseason, apparently needing to move on from Michael Pittman in the process. Pierce as the deep threat and Josh Downs as the slot-only receiver will need to fill Pittman's void. Sauce Gardner/Charvarious Ward is one of the better 1-2 combinations at cornerback.
FPI rates Colts 1.02 points higher than PFF.
This secondary will be the death of this team. We'll see how the Giants deploy LB/EDGE Arvil Reese, although he exclusively played linebacker in the preseason. Adding Francis Mauigoa (10th overall, Miami) and kicking him into guard immediately makes the line better, but it's still not there yet. This is less than ideal for the CTE boys at quarterback and running back.
The three sources are within 0.87 points.
The Falcons took two edge rushers in the first round of the 2025 draft (Jalon Walker and James Pearce), giving up significant draft capital for the ladder. Neither is on the week 1 roster, with Walker out for the season (ACL) and Pearce suspended for 8 games. The defense is troubling, as is whatever lefty is playing quarterback.
FPI rates Falcons 1.50 points higher than Market.
The Panthers should have a fringe top-10 offensive line, but they'll be without both tackles (Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton) to start the year. LT Rasheed Walker (Packers) and RT Monroe Freeling (19th overall, Georgia) looked like excellent depth pieces. Now they're starters. Some help did come in on the defense, mainly EDGE Jaelan Phillips and LB Devin Lloyd.
The three sources are within 0.80 points.
The Saints needed 8th overall WR Jordyn Tyson's hamstring to be ok. Unfortunately, it is not.
All three sources are within 0.24 points.
Carnell Tate probably isn't the ideal pick at 4, but the Titans desperately needed receiver help if they want to develop Cam Ward. The rebuild still has a long way to go, but it starts with chemistry between those two.
The three sources are within 0.84 points.
The Raiders attempted to fix their offensive line by giving C Tyler Linderbaum all of the money, and it was smart to do so. Kirk Cousins gets the start, so we'll need to wait at least another week before we see 1st overall pick Fernando Mendoza. On defense, the Raiders brought in EDGE Kwity Paye to rush opposite Maxx Crosby, who is definitely not on the Ravens.
All three sources are within 0.37 points.
Deshaun Watson returned. The offense should have 3 rookies playing serious snaps (LT Spencer Fano, WR Denzel Boston, and WR KC Concepcion. Myles Garrett is in Los Angeles. This is Cleveland. What could go wrong?
Market rates Browns 1.34 points higher than PFF.
Geno Smith brought the Raiders the first overall pick last year. The mission is clear. Tank commander Geno is at your command.
Market rates Jets 1.18 points higher than PFF.
After the 90-man rosters were trimmed down to 53, the Dolphins claimed an absurd 7 players on waivers. You have to be reallllllllllly bad for that to happen. It's as rebuilding as rebuilding gets - we should see plenty of young snaps, especially LG Kadyn Proctor (12th overall, Bama), WR Caleb Douglas (3rd round, Texas Tech), CB Chris Johnson (27th overall, San Diego State), and LB Jacob Rodriguez (2nd round, Texas Tech).
FPI rates Dolphins 1.57 points higher than PFF.
You can see the vision in Arizona, but they don't have a quarterback or a playable secondary. Oh yeah, and their schedule is the hardest in the league.
FPI rates Cardinals 2.02 points higher than PFF.
