First and Thirty
Updated November 11, 2026
First and Thirty combines four independent measures of NFL team strength: Betting Market, PFF Point Spread Rating, ESPN FPI, and FTN DAVE.
FTN DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) blends preseason expectations with actual DVOA performance, gradually placing more weight on the current season as more games are played.
DAVE is originally expressed on a DVOA-style percentage scale, so F&T standardizes DAVE and maps its dispersion onto the common point-rating scale of Market, PFF, and FPI before equal-weighting the four sources.
Each source is centered around league average and weighted equally. A rating of +4.0 means a team is rated approximately four points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. A negative rating means the team is rated below league average.
These ratings are not a predicted margin for every game. Home-field advantage and matchup-specific factors are not represented by the raw team rating.
Source Agreement measures how closely the four inputs, Market, PFF, FPI and DAVE, rate each team.
High: all four ratings fall within a 1.5-point range. Moderate: the widest gap is between 1.5 and 2.5 points. Low: the widest gap exceeds 2.5 points.
When three sources are tightly aligned and one differs substantially, the team card identifies the outlying source.
Source Agreement measures disagreement between the inputs, not the probability that a ranking is correct.
The widest gap between sources is 1.92 points.
All four sources are within 0.96 points.
The widest gap between sources is 2.15 points.
PFF is the high outlier on the Rams; the other three sources are within 1.00 points.
All four sources are within 0.78 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.63 points.
The four sources span 2.84 points, from DAVE at the high end to Market at the low end.
FPI is the low outlier on the Seahawks; the other three sources are within 0.60 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.87 points.
All four sources are within 1.02 points.
All four sources are within 1.36 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.82 points.
The four sources span 3.23 points, from FPI at the high end to PFF at the low end.
All four sources are within 1.07 points.
The four sources span 3.06 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
The widest gap between sources is 1.99 points.
The four sources span 2.71 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
The four sources span 4.39 points, from Market at the high end to FPI at the low end.
The widest gap between sources is 1.64 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.52 points.
The four sources span 4.09 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
The four sources span 3.51 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
The four sources span 3.14 points, from Market at the high end to FPI at the low end.
The four sources span 3.55 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
The widest gap between sources is 1.81 points.
The four sources span 4.07 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
All four sources are within 1.20 points.
The four sources span 3.05 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.
PFF is the high outlier on the Eagles; the other three sources are within 0.36 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.57 points.
The widest gap between sources is 1.74 points.
The sources are sharply divided on the Dolphins: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.50 points apart. DAVE is highest and PFF is lowest.
