First and Thirty’s Week 8 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

The 49ers have a bye week 8, which gives Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles) a much needed week of rest. I'd expect him back week 9. Nick Bosa (calf) is expected back week 9 as well, and the 49ers traded for DT DeForest Buckner. By EPA/play, the 49ers offense is 2nd. The defense is 11th. The defense is 23rd in pressure rate over expectation, making Bosa's return and the Buckner trade that much more important.

The widest gap between sources is 1.54 points.

By EPA/play: offense 23rd, defense 2nd. Sam Darnold played well last week against the Chiefs - completing 71.4% of his passes (+9.5% above expectation) and gaining 9.2 YPA. The defense (and JSN) made the Chiefs look like little bitches. Oh yeah, and they're adding Quenton Nelson from the Colts.

PFF is the high outlier on the Seahawks; the other three sources are within 0.99 points.

By EPA/play: offense 1st, defense 31st (lol). The defense is also: 29th in success rate allowed, 26th in explosive play rate allowed, and 29th in red zone conversion rate. Thanks mostly to Greg Rouseeau, they get decent pressure (14th in pressure rate over expectation), but the entire secondary is playing awful (including Christian Benford).

All four sources are within 0.98 points.

By EPA/play: offense 8th, defense 10th. Obviously, they are much better than their 3-4 record indicates. Myles Garrett (knee) is not expected to return to practice this week.

The four sources span 2.97 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

By EPA/play: offense 7th, defense 5th. The biggest issue on defense? 3rd downs, where they rank 22nd in third down conversion rate allowed. Ugly loss to the Seahawks last week. They are 1.5 point road favorites against the Broncos this week.

All four sources are within 1.39 points.

The Jaguars are coming off a bye. By EPA/play, they are 4th on offense and 8th on defense.

All four sources are within 1.32 points.

The Bears had a convincing win against the Patriots last Thursday. I felt the need to remind you as TNF games feel like forever ago. If we only include Caleb Williams games, the Bears offense is tied for 2nd in EPA/play.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Bears; the other three sources are within 0.52 points.

EPA/play: Offense 6th, defense 12th. The defense will improve if they can cut down on explosive plays allowed (currently dead last) and third down conversion rate allowed (30th).

The widest gap between sources is 2.33 points.

The Ravens have the Bills this week, and Lamar Jackson is expected to return. With Lamar Jackson on the field, the Ravens EPA/play is 0.215, best in the league. Without Jackson, they're -0.066, 27th in the league. The defense is 18th in EPA/play allowed, mostly due to lack of pressure generated (26th in pressure rate over expectation).

All four sources are within 1.20 points.

Tough L last Thursday to the Bears. They are trending in the right direction health wise, with CB Carlton Davis set to return. They are also getting back their backup guard Bed Brown, who has been an important player with both of the Patriots starting guards on IR. Per EPA/play, the Patriots rank 12th on offense and 17th on defense.

All four sources are within 0.79 points.

The defense is up to 23rd in EPA/play, trending in the right direction. Naturally, we all expect that to improve. CJ Stroud is playing quite well, and with Tank Dell back, he has a slew of weapons to throw to.

The four sources span 2.85 points, from Market at the high end to PFF at the low end.

EPA/play: offense 3rd, defense 30th. Brian Branch is back playing, and Kerby Joseph (knee) returned to practice. I expect the defense to improve.

All four sources are within 0.96 points.

The defense carries the team - by EPA/play, 9th on defense and 26th on offense. Courtland Sutton is averaging an actual-pathetic 0.94 yards per route run this season.

All four sources are within 1.25 points.

Offense: 5th in EPA/play. Defense? Still dead fucking last.

The widest gap between sources is 1.85 points.

Congrats on being undefeated. We power ranked you 15. Deal with it. When you're offense is 28th in EPA/play, 15th is about the best you can hope for. The Vikings have the tanking Colts this week, but then the schedule gets interesting: Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco. I (genuinely) can't wait to see how the defense plays against elite offenses. We'll find out in a few weeks if the defense is all-time great, or just great.

The widest gap between sources is 1.58 points.

Baker Mayfield is back, but so far this season he's only provided a 0.015 EPA/play over the UDFA rookie who took his spot. The defense, however, looks great - 3rd in EPA/play allowed, 6th in success rate allowed, and 7th in points per drive allowed. This is despite being 27th in missed tackle rate and 24th in pressure rate over expectation. All 3 corners are playing good football.

The four sources span 2.96 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

The Packers offense is the problem, 19th by EPA/play on offense, 4th on defense despite being 27th in both third down conversion rate allowed and pressure rate over expectation. The problem on offense continues to be the offensive line, and now it appears Kevin Zeitler will replace an injured Travis Glover at guard, which I genuinely think is an improvement.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.70 points.

By EPA/play: 24th on offense, 6th on defense. Zero surprises from preseason expectations. The offensive line looks great, but the receiving room is a problem. DK Metcalf's 1.41 yards/route run is in the 42nd percentile, and you need more than that out of your number 1 receiver.

The widest gap between sources is 2.26 points.

Their pass rush continues to be the surprise of the season, ranking 4th in pressure rate despite being 29th in blitz rate. They are 1st in both total pressures and pressure rate over expectation. The defense is still 16th in EPA/play allowed, however. The offense with Michael Penix Jr is at 0.104 EPA/play, which would rank 7th in the league.

The four sources span 2.79 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

That was an ass kicking from the Bucs. With Mayfield coming back from injury, Tampa ran the ball 49 times for 258 yards (5.3 average) and 3 touchdowns. They threw the ball 7 times. Carolina's run defense is 30th in EPA/play, but that was just pathetic. The offense is 9th in EPA/play, even after scoring just 13 points on the Bucs.

All four sources are within 0.92 points.

They haven't won a game yet, but somehow moved up 3 spots. Ok. DAVE has them at 29, so there is plenty of disagreement here. Offense: dead last in EPA/play. Defense: 13th in EPA/play allowed. Travis Burke, a 4th rounder stepping in for an injured Rashawn Slater at LT, has played well. Ladd McConkey should return as well after suffering a concussion week 6.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Chargers; the other three sources are within 0.79 points.

By EPA/play: Offense 17th, defense 24th. The defense is 8th against the run in EPA allowed/play, but the pass defense has been horrendous - 26th in success rate, 31st in pressure rate over expectation, and 24th in completion percentage allowed.

All four sources are within 0.99 points.

We tanking just a year after trading two first round picks for Sauce Gardner - G Quenton Nelson was traded to the Seahawks and DT DeForest Buckner is on his way to the substation is San Francisco. The market is a little quicker to react to this stuff and has the Colts at 29.

The four sources span 3.65 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

Remember when they were undefeated? Me either. By EPA/play, offense 14th, defense 26th. Per usual, Maxx Crosby is the only player on the defense playing well.

All four sources are within 0.79 points.

How about JJ McCarthy? The Giants gain +0.208 EPA/play and +2.7% success rate when McCarthy is on the field, both absurd numbers. It's small sample and almost certainly won't continue, but for now we're having fun. By EPA/play, offense is 15th and defense is 19th. 25 feels harsh, but uncertainty at the QB position is likely hurting them.

The four sources span 3.75 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

Omar Cooper Jr, since returning from injury, now has back to back 100-yard games. Both Fashanu and Membou are playing well at tackle. Breece Hall may return week 8. David Bailey (groin) isn't practicing, but he's playing well when healthy. There's some reason for excitement in New York.

The widest gap between sources is 2.14 points.

Offense: 27th in EPA/play, defense is 7th. Denzel Ward has arguably been the best corner in football, while both rookie WRs (Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion) look like hits. The QB sucks tho.

All four sources are within 1.43 points.

By EPA/play: offense 18th, defense 25th. We're still waiting on rookie Jordan Tyson's return (hammy).

The four sources span 4.08 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

By EPA/play: offense 22nd, defense 28th. Ugly.

The four sources span 3.82 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

All four sources are within 0.92 points.

The offense is 31st in EPA/play, defense is 22nd in EPA/play allowed. Zero fun.

All four sources are within 0.71 points.

They won a game! Yay Miami!

The four sources span 3.54 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.