Trevor Siemian (QB, Saints) under 17.5 completions +105 (FanDuel): The consensus projection is at 19, but the real number is likely lower than that given the odds of benching. Even if the game script requires the Saints to throw, we have bench outs to still cash the bet, particularly with Sean Payton's pet Taysom Hill healthy and lurking. Siemian's highest ever PFF grade for a season is 56.8, which he got in 2016. The guy isn't a good quarterback. The Saints are in Nashville this week, and the Titans have a solid pass defense, ranking 8th in DVOA. The Titans also have a solid pass rush, ranking 11th in pressure rate while only blitzing 26th most often. The game total is a mere 44 points, painting the picture that offensive output isn't in our future.
Michael Carter (RB, Jets) under 3.5 receptions +140 (Caesars): Carter's projection is 3.6, so I'm happy to take the +140 here. The Jets have a tough matchup against the Bills. The Bills are a 13-point favorite, and with the over/under at 47.5, Vegas is projecting the Jets to score 17.5 points. It's also worth noting that Ty Johnson has emerged as a receiving option for the Jets out of the backfield. In week 8, Carter ran 33 routes on 57 drop backs (58%) while Johnson ran a route on just 16 (28%). Last week it was a much more even split, with Carter getting 27 routes on 59 drop backs (46%) and Johnson getting 26 routes (44%).
Tom Brady (QB, Bucs) over 2.5 passing touchdowns +140 (Caesars): You'll notice a common pattern of betting props it to take the dog side whatever the line is. 2.5 is a fair projection for Brady's touchdown passes, so if one of the sides is offering +140 odds, I'm taking it. The Bucs travel to Washington this week -- with the game total at 51, we can project a lot of offense. The Football Team's defense is also 31st in passing DVOA and are 30th in red zone passing defense DVOA. Brady has gone over 2.5 in 5/8 games this season, and has thrown 4 TDs in each of the last two games. Despite the injuries at the receiver position for the Bucs, I still like the over here.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jags) does not throw an INT +170 (Caesars): Lawrence was plagued by turnover worthy throws to start the season, totaling 9 in his first 3 games. Since then, however, he's had just 4 in his last 5 games. The Jags travel to Indianapolis to host the Colts, who are a mediocre passing defense, ranking 15th in DVOA. It's also worth noting that their corners have struggled this season, and they'll be without Xavier Rhodes (calf).
Jeremy McNichols (RB, TEN) under 2.5 receptions +120 (FanDuel): You probably guessed it at this point, McNichols has a projection of exactly 2.5 receptions. Give me the dog odds, please. We got a look last week on how the Titans would use their running backs as receivers in the post Derrick Henry world, and the answer is they aren't. McNichols led all running backs with 12 routes run on 32 drop backs (37.5%). McNichols caught all 3 of his targets -- getting targeted that frequently and catching all passes is a level that I don't expect anyone to sustain, and that's what it took for him to hit over 2.5.
The final fun prop bet: Tom Brady's rushing prop is 0.5 a yard. Take the over, baby. He's actually had positive rushing numbers in 6/8 games, but be prepared to tilt on kneel downs.
Happy prop betting,