The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Sunday 1PM Slate:
Will Levis u238.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Levis's Titans are taking on the Bears. Although it's a pass friendly environment (3.5 point dogs with a total of 45), He's consistently projected in the low 220s. The Bears defense has struggled in recent years, but they added DE Montez Sweat at the deadline last year and S Kevin Byard in the offseason.
Anthony Richardson u43.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): Richardson is perhaps the most athletic quarterback the game of football has ever seen, but a slew of injuries from last year - including an AC Joint from early October that ended his season - should lead to the Colts exercising some caution on how often Richardson is used as a runner. He's consistently projected below 43.
Zack Moss u48.5 rushing yards -117 (Caesars): With the departure of Joe Mixon (Texans), Zack Moss is now the lead back in Cincinnati. However, 2nd year man Chase Brown should still see a fair number of carries. The Bengals should run plenty as their projected to blow out the Patriots, but projections consistently have Moss lower than 48.5
Stef Diggs u60.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings): Diggs moved on from the Bills to the Texans in the offseason, where he'll be competing with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz for targets. Receivers typically take time before getting acclimated with a new team, and the projections agree that this number is too high.
Drake London o5.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM). London is projected right at 5.5. I'll happily take the dog odds.
Chris Olave o5.5 receptions +108 (Caesars): See above.
Marvin Harrison Jr o5.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Again, see above. Harrison Jr is just a rookie, but he's easily the top dog on the Cardinals depth chart. Arizona is 6.5 point dog on the road against Buffalo, setting up a scenario where Arizona will need to throw. It's also worth noting that the Bills have lost several members of their secondary that were previously key contributors, including CB Tre'Davious White (Rams), S Micah Hyde (FA), and S Jordan Poyer (Dolphins)
Sunday 4PM Slate:
Dak Prescott u29.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Prescott's Cowboys are 2.5 point dogs against the Browns. The game total is a lowly 41. Dallas is starting two rookies on the offensive line against an exceptional Browns pass rush. Betting against a non-playoff Prescott may seem foolish, but I'm taking the under here.
Devante Adams u70.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings): Adams is up against a shaky-at-best Chargers defense, but the low total (40.5), poor quarterback play, and projections all point to the under.
Monday Night Football
Christian McCaffrey u37.5 receiving yards -119 (Caesars): CMC's 49ers are up against the Jets, who naturally have a strong defense, including an excellent coverage linebacker tandem (Quincy Williams and CJ Mosley) who will mostly see CMC in coverage. Most projections have McCaffrey in the low 30s.