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My prop bet card for week 1 is below. If you're curious about the process, read this article.
WEEK 1 PLAYER PROPS
Model-qualified plays from First & Thirty
Plays require agreement from at least three projection models and a minimum 5 percentage-point difference from the sportsbook's no-vig market probability. 1 unit per play.
30Total Bets
30Total Units
1Overs
29Unders
Passing Yards
6 plays
Player
Pick
Sportsbook
Price
Model Agreement
Dak Prescott
Under 262.5
DraftKings
-114
4 of 4 models
Daniel Jones
Under 233.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Kyler Murray
Under 222.5
DraftKings
-112
4 of 4 models
Patrick Mahomes
Under 225.5
FanDuel
-114
3 of 4 models
Trevor Lawrence
Under 236.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Tyler Shough
Under 246.5
DraftKings
-111
4 of 4 models
Rushing Yards - RB
2 plays
Player
Pick
Sportsbook
Price
Model Agreement
Jeremiyah Love
Over 38.5
DraftKings
-109
4 of 4 models
Jahmyr Gibbs
Under 84.5
DraftKings
-110
3 of 4 models
Rushing Yards - QB
4 plays
Player
Pick
Sportsbook
Price
Model Agreement
Brock Purdy
Under 18.5
FanDuel
-113
3 of 4 models
Jordan Love
Under 10.5
FanDuel
-114
3 of 4 models
Lamar Jackson
Under 38.5
FanDuel
-114
3 of 4 models
Tyler Shough
Under 16.5
DraftKings
-110
3 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
18 plays
Player
Pick
Sportsbook
Price
Model Agreement
Blake Corum
Under 3.5
DraftKings
-107
4 of 4 models
Breece Hall
Under 20.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Caleb Douglas
Under 28.5
DraftKings
-111
4 of 4 models
Jalen McMillan
Under 34.5
DraftKings
-110
4 of 4 models
James Cook
Under 16.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Jordan Whittington
Under 8.5
FanDuel
-113
4 of 4 models
Josh Downs
Under 46.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Malik Washington
Under 27.5
DraftKings
-111
4 of 4 models
Pat Bryant
Under 23.5
DraftKings
-111
4 of 4 models
Rashee Rice
Under 61.5
DraftKings
-114
4 of 4 models
Tee Higgins
Under 65.5
DraftKings
-114
4 of 4 models
Tommy Tremble
Under 13.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Tre Harris
Under 26.5
DraftKings
-110
4 of 4 models
Tre Tucker
Under 48.5
DraftKings
-113
4 of 4 models
Tyler Higbee
Under 17.5
FanDuel
-113
4 of 4 models
Tyquan Thornton
Under 20.5
DraftKings
-113
4 of 4 models
Xavier Hutchinson
Under 19.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Xavier Worthy
Under 38.5
FanDuel
-114
4 of 4 models
Lines and prices shown are from the frozen Week 1 snapshot and may have changed. For informational purposes only. Last updated: 2026-09-10T18:06:22.881564+00:00
What Stands Out
Yeah, that's a lot of Unders.
That isn't a side we're trying to force; it's simply where the current model-market disagreements landed. Ironically, the model's favorite bet is Jeremiah Love's over.
24 unanimous 4-of-4
All four models agreed on 24 of the 30 bets.