Prop Bets: Week 15

· Brady,Week 15 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Tommy DeVito o178.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Bryce Young o169.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Zach Wilson o178.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Bailey Zappe o188.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Jordan Love u250.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet)

Rachaad White u76.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Sam Howell u270.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet)

Tony Pollard o53.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Demarcus Robinson u32.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)

Deebo Samuel o57.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday Night Football

Keaton Mitchell u46.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Calvin Ridley o4.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel)

Monday Night Football

Jalen Hurts u252.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)