Prop Bets: Week 18

· Brady,Week 18 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. Naturally, given that it's week 18, we'll also factor in playoff motivation. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All bets assume a risk of 1 unit.

Saturday Slate
Tyler Huntley o163.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Mason Rudolph o188.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Michael Pittman u79.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday 1PM Slate
Jared Goff o215.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars)
Chigoziem Okonkwo u39.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday 4PM Slate
Jordan Love u254.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Justin Fields u55.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
Zach Charbonnet u26.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
DK Metcalf o5.5 receptions +136 (Caesars)

 

Sunday Night Football
Stef Diggs o59.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)