Recommended Bet: Baltimore (+3.5) over Kansas City

With a strength of 4.86, the model likes the Ravens at home getting 3.5 over the Chiefs.

· Week 2 2021,Brady,Chiefs,Ravens

Fair warning: fading the Chiefs is never fun. It may be profitable -- and we believe it to be here -- but it's never fun. Their offense is just on another level, so much so that quite literally no lead is safe. In week 1, the Brows were up 22-10 at the half, but then Pat Mahomes went and did some Pat Mahomes shit and the Chiefs won by 4. On the day, Mahomes finished 35/41 (75%), good for 337 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 picks (though PFF did ding him with a "turnover worthy" play). The playmakers are largely unchanged from years past -- Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are virtually unstoppable together, particularly when Mahomes is throwing him the ball. They're a bit week outside of that now that Sammy Watkins is playing in Baltimore, but that's only a minor loss in the context of the offense. The offensive line has a brand-new look to it -- after the disaster that was the Super Bowl -- the Chiefs went out and paid big money for LT Orlando Brown and LG Joe Thuney. Brown gave up 5 pressures to Myles Garrett and co last week, but rookies Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith both played well. The defense is a weak point, however -- the line features Chris Jones, who routinely fights for the unofficial "best interior pass rusher who isn't Aaron Donald" trophy, and zero others. Edge rusher Frank Clark will return after missing last week with a hamstring injury -- he had success back in his Seahawks days, but he's racked up grades of 63.3 and 54.3 from PFF the last two seasons. The secondary looks to second year starter L'Jarius Sneed to lead the corners, and Tyrann Mathieu should return at safety after missing last weeks game with an illness.

Lamar Jackson -- now in his 4th year -- had a game he'd like to forget last week. Though he made plays we've all come to expect, including both impressive scramble and big time throws, he fumbled the ball three times and had two passes that should have been picked off. He's still one of the top quarterbacks in the game and as dangerous as it gets on the ground. The receiving options have always felt like a poor man's Kansas City Chiefs -- Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown are solid, both they can't hold a candle to Hill/Kelce. Adding in Sammy Watkins certainly helps, as does the obvious revenge game narrative. The offensive line hoped to return to form with Ronnie Stanley returning from an ACL injury, but he surrendered nine (9!!!) total pressure last week and is now very questionable with a knee injury after missing practice all week. Until he can get back to form, it's fair to question how effective the line will be, even if Jackson is a QB who can get away with bad line play. On defense, the Ravens have always relied on scheme over personnel to generate pressure (they blitz a lot), and that strategy will be put to the test after losing Yannick Ngakoue and Matthew Judon in free agency. Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Derek Wolfe are a strong run stuffing trio up front. The strength of the defense is the secondary, though they lost corner Marcus Peters to a torn ACL. Even still, with Marlon Humphrey, Tavon Young, DeShon Elliot, and Chuck Clark, it's a secondary that should be feared (Ok, maybe Kansas City shouldn't fear them, but they shouldn't fear anybody).

Make a stiff drink and fade the Chiefs. Your wallet will thank you, even if your health won't. Money is forever.