Baltimore (8.5) @ Arizona
Power rankings: Baltimore 5, Arizona 32
Keys to the game, when Baltimore has the ball:
The Ravens offense sits at 5th in offensive DVOA and 10th in EPA/play. Lamar Jackson is playing at levels we haven't seen from him since he won the MVP award in 2019. Jackson is PFF's top graded quarterback this season, averaging an impressive 8.1 yards per attempt while completing 71% of his passes. He's also averaging 5.1 yards per attempt on the ground, although fumbles have been an issue - Jackson's 8 total fumbles is most in the league this year. The Ravens have a top 5 offensive line with arguably the best group of skill position players that Jackson has ever had - TE Mark Andrews, rookie Zay Flowers, and Odell Beckham Jr are all contributing. Meanwhile, they're averaging 5.0 yards per attempt on the ground. This is an elite, do-it-all offense.
The opposite can be said for the Cardinals defense. They're 31st in defensive DVOA and 29th in EPA/play. Their pass rush is generating pressure at a 25.1% clip - 31st most in the league, although this is largely scheme based - Arizona's blitz rate (19.3%) is the 30th highest. They did finally get some production out of Zaven Collins, an edge rusher playing the position for the first time in his life (he was previously a linebacker. Collins had just a 6.4% pass rush win rate weeks 1-6, but exploded week 7 with a win rate of 20%, which came with 5 pressures and a sack. Collins was the 16th overall pick from 2021, a 6'4 260 pound elite athlete, but it's an almost impossible transition. It's promising to see him have some success, but I'm not counting on that to continue against an elite offensive line. There's no story on any other defensive player. They are bad everywhere.
When the Cardinals have the ball:
Kyler Murray is apparently fully healthy after tearing his ACL during week 14 of last year, but Josh Dobbs will remain the starter for now. Dobbs is completing 62% of his passe, gaining just 5.9 yards per attempt. His PFF grade is a 64.7, ranking 23rd of 35 quarterbacks. WRs Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson have had some success, and an injury to Zach Ertz has forced Arizona to play their best tight end, 2022 2nd rounder Trey McBride. It's likely enough for an elite quarterback to have success, but Dobbs simply isn't it.
The Ravens defense is 2nd in both DVOA and EPA/play. Their pass rush is generating pressure at a rate of 29%, 17th most in the league, but that's been mostly without Odafe Oweh, who is now healthy. They also feature one of the best linebacker tandems in football (Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen) with a strong secondary (CB Marlon Humphrey and safeties Kyle Hamilton and Geno Stone). This could be a rough start to Murray's return.