Seattle (15) @ Washington (25)
Injury updates:
-Football Team's RT Sam Cosmi (hip) is out after an injury last week. Cosmi, a rookie, has played well this season. The Football Team does have experience playing without him, as Cosmi also missed weeks 6-10. Cornelius Lucas filled in at that time and provided roughly the same level of play as Cosmi.
-Football Team's C Tyler Larsen (knee) was injured last week and is out this week. Wes Schweitzer filled in. Schweitzer has mostly played guard, but has performed at a high level this season.
-Football Team's TE Ricky Seals Jones (hip) is doubtful. He has injured week 10 and inactive week 11.
-Football Team's WR Curtis Samuel (groin) will return. Samuel has hardly played this season after reinjuring his groin week 5. Week 4 was his only full game.
-Football Team's TE Logan Thomas (hamstring) will return for the first time since week 4.
-Seahawks LG Damien Lewis (elbow) is out. Lewis played every snap last week, so I'm not quite sure when the injury happened, but he wasn't previously listed on the injury report with an elbow injury. He's been a below average guard.
-Seahawks CB Tre Brown (knee) wis out. Brown is a 4th round rookie out of Oklahoma who has not played well this season.
Spread update: The line is still at 1, with 59% of tickets and 44% of cash on the Seahawks.
When Seattle has the ball:
The Seahawks on offense (13th in DVOA, 21st in EPA/play) are a weird story due to Russell Wilson's injury, who suffered a nasty looking finger injury week 5. Geno Smith took over till week 10, where he played like Geno Smith. Wilson then came back to play weeks 10 and 11, where he proceeded to play like -- well, Geno Smith. In those two games, Wilson has a 40.5 passing grade from PFF. He completed 51.5% of his passes with 4 turnover worthy plays and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. The narrative, of course, is Wilson is a combination of rusty and still injured. The other possibility that many don't consider is this is simply variance. Either way, I was happy to see the model fading recency bias. Wilson is an elite QB, and it would be foolish to not assume that he won't return to form sooner rather than later. His offensive line is full of mediocre/below average players, except for LT Duane Brown, who has been solid this season. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is one of the league's best 1-2 punch at receiver, though there isn't much behind him -- TE Gerald Everett and Freddie Swain being the next two most targeted receivers. On the ground, Alex Collins will handle the bulk of the RB carries. On the other side, the Football Team has been disastrous, ranking 31st in DVOA and EPA/play. Now without Chase Young (ACL), the pass rush is a shadow of it's self from a year ago -- though Jonathan Allen (41 pressures) has been fantastic this season. Kendall Fuller has also played well at corner, but every other defensive player is riding the struggle bus.
When the Football Team has the ball:
The Football Team's offense sits at 19th in DVOA and 20th in EPA/play. Taylor Heinicke ranks 29th in PFF grades (62.6) while completing 66.2% of his passes (1.7% above expectation) and gaining 7.3 yards per play. The offensive line is solid across the board -- though is a bit banged up, as noted above. The receiving core is Terry McLaurin, who is quickly becoming the next Allen Robinson "I've never had a great QB, but my stats still fuck," along with nobody else. Behind McLaurin by projected targets: running back JD McKissic, Curtis Samuel (who has played 1 game all year), Adam Humphries, and TE Logan Thomas. Antonio Gibson will handle the bulk of the carries. On the other side, the Seahawks defense is 19th in DVOA and 25th in EPA/play. Their strong along the interior of the defensive line -- both Al Woods and Poona Ford have played well against the run and rushing the passer. Bobby Wagner, now aged 31, continues to be a productive linebacker. However, they struggle on the edge and in coverage. Jamal Adams, their prized safety, is outstanding against the run and as a pass rusher, but coverage is easily the weakest point of his game. As a result, the Seahawks are far better against the run (9th in DVOA) than they are vs the pass (25th).
Prop bets:
Terry McLaurin o5.5 receptions +114 (FanDuel): This matches McLaurin's projection, so I'm happy to take dog odds on either end. In general, I like McLaurin's matchup against a Seahawks defense that struggles against the pass.
DK Metcalf o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): See above. The Football Team has one of the worst pass defenses in football, Russ Wilson is another weak healthy, and we're getting dog odds at Metcalf's projection on the over.