Miami @ NY Jets (+10.0)
Power rankings: Miami 8, NY Jets 23
The Dolphins offense ranks 2nd in DVOA vs a Jets defense that ranks 5th. The Jets have been far better against the pass (5th in DVOA) than the run (18th). This is largely due to their defensive line, which ranks 5th in pressure rate despite ranking dead last in blitz rate, as well as one of the better secondary's in football. Tua Tagovailoa currently ranks 1st in PFF grade against the blitz, which should play into the Jets preference to only send 4 rushers. There are also several members of the Dolphins offensive line that are beatable (LG Lester Cotton, RG Liam Eichenberg, RT Austin Jackson). The Jets need to get consistent pressure on Tua to limit big plays.
The Jets (30th in offensive DVOA) are turning to Tim Boyle, a 2018 UDFA out of Eastern Kentucky with 123 career dropbacks. We shouldn't expect much out of Boyle, but the Jets weren't getting much out of Zach Wilson either. Their issues on offense extend far beyond the quarterback - they have one of the worst offensive lines in football (LT Mekhi Becton may also miss with an ankle/knee injury) and zero receiving options outside of Garrett Wilson. They have a pair of talented backs in Breece Hall/Dalvin Cook, but the Jets still rank 31st in rushing offense DVOA. At least their opponent isn't the strongest team around - the Dolphins currently rank 21st in defensive DVOA. Miami does have a solid line that will win in the trenches, and they received a massive boost to their secondary since Jalen Ramsey returned from an off-season injury. Ramsey is 3 games into his 2023 season, and his 90.2 PFF grade is 3rd best among all corneres.
New Orleans (Pick Em) @ Atlanta
Power rankings: New Orleans 14, Atlanta 25
The Saints offense is sitting at 20th in offensive DVOA against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th. Derek Carr is 20th in ESPN's total QBR and 21st in PFF grades. Carr also suffered a concussion in week 9, but had the bye week to recover. He currently remains in concussion protocol, but I'd expect him to play. If he can't, Jameis Winston isn't a big enough drop off for us to come off this bet. The offensive line has been mediocre - they're strong at center (Erik McCoy) and RT (Ryan Ramczyk), but everyone else is struggling. Michael Thomas has predictably been injured - this time a knee injury that landed him on IR, leaving them with Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara as the only established receiving options. Rashid Shaheed - a 2022 UDFA slot receiver - has performed well in limited playing time this season, and The Saints will need Shaheed to step up as he takes on a full-time roll. The Falcons have struggled to get after the quarterback, but they have a strong linebacking tandem and underrated secondary.
The Falcons are turning back to QB Desmond Ridder, as they continue to struggle to find an answer at the quarterback position. Ridder has a 48.9 PFF grade, ranking him 36th out of 38 qualifiers. The other pieces are in place - Atlanta has a strong offensive line and a good group of skill position players, but they rank just 25th in offensive DVOA due to historically poor quarterback performance. On defense, the Saints are 11th in DVOA. They've struggled to get after the passer this season, which should lead to an advantage for the Falcons in the trenches. The secondary took a hit when Marshon Lattimore injured his ankle last game, which landed him on IR. However, Paulson Adebo has been one of the best cornerbacks in football this season, currently supporting a 90.9 coverage grade from PFF while allowing a 41.3 passer rating into his coverage. Marcus Maye and Tyrian Mathieu hold things together in the back end, representing a solid safety tandem.