Seattle (+13.5) @ San Francisco
Seattle 12, San Fran 1
The Seahawks are 14th in DVOA, ranking far better throwing the football (12th in DVOA) than running (22nd). We got some tough news on Friday when we learned that Geno Smith tweaked his groin (penis) in Thursday's practice. Smith is officially listed as questionable, and Pete Caroll called Smith a game time decision. However, the docs at SICscore.com believe Smith will play with limited mobility, and the line hasn't budged, which makes me optimistic that we'll see him suit up on Sunday. The Seahawks backup is Drew Lock - if Lock starts, I'll reach out to the sportsbook and ask that my Seahawks bet automatically be graded as a loss. The Seahawks have a bottom tier offensive line. They did get back RT Abraham Lucas last week - Lucas had previously been out since week 1 with a knee injury - but he predictably struggled against the Cowboys elite pass rush. The offense flows through DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, although rookie 1st rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off his best game, where he grabbed 7 catches on 11 targets. JSN previously had not been targeted more than 7 times in a game. They should get back RB Kenneth Walker (oblique) - Walker is technically questionable, but his full participant in Friday's practice is an indication he's ready to return. The 49ers unfortunately match up well against Seattle - they rank 4th in DVOA, performing better against the pass (3rd in DVOA) than the run (18th). They rank 4th in pressure rate despite blitzing 28th most often, thanks to an incredibly talented defensive line (DE Nick Bosa, DE Chase Young, DT Javon Hargrave). Bosa currently ranks 3rd in PFF pass rush grade, 3rd in win rate, and 2nd in total pressures. He lines up on both sides, but will spend most of his time against Lucas. The 49ers coverage grade from PFF ranks 2nd best in the NFL. They have virtually no weaknesses in the secondary, but they did recently lose S Talanoa Hufanga (ACL) and slot CB Deommodore Lenoir has struggled at times. JSN runs 70% of his routes out of the slot, and needs to take advantage as the only member of the team with a decent matchup if the Seahawks want to keep this close.
The 49ers - to nobody's surprise - are the best offense in football, per DVOA. They're 1st in pass offense DVOA, and 3rd running the football. Brock Purdy's MVP candidate can be debated another time, but what's clear is he's leading the best offense in football. The 49ers do have a bad offensive line, but the skill position combination of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey is easily the most impressive group in the game today. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 24th in defensive DVOA (26th pass, 19th run). They have had some success generating pressure, ranking 11th in pressure rate and 8th in pass rush win rate. Boye Mafe, the 2022 2nd rounder out of Minnesota, is the team's best pass rusher (42 pressures) and primarily lines up over the right tackle. The 49ers only good offensive lineman is Trent Williams, who plays left tackle and remains one of the best in football. Mafe will be lined up against RT Colton McKivitz, where he should have a big edge. Brock Purdy has been under pressure 39.6% of the time - 10th most in the league - giving the 49ers a single weakness that Seattle needs to exploit. Apart from rookie CB Devon Witherspoon, the Seahawks secondary has struggled, which will represent a major mismatch against the 49ers skill position players.
Tennessee (+13.5) @ Miami
Power rankings: Tennessee 24, Miami 7
The Titans offense ranks 22nd in DVOA (22nd pass, 13th run). Will Levis has been unable to replicate his strong performance in his first NFL game, back in week 8, leaving him with a 58.3 grade from PFF on the season. The Titans have one of the worst offensive lines in football, which has led to Levis being under pressure 4th most among all quarterbacks, which has in turn led to far too many turnovers. Levis's 4.0 turnover worthy play rate ranks 9th worst in the NFL, but his big time throw rate of 5.6% ranks 9th best, making him the ultimate boom or bust quarterback. The Titans have very little in receiving apart from DeAndre Hopkins - Hopkins's 91 targets lead the team by a 39 target margin (TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has 52), and are 2.4x the next closest wide receiver (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, 37). Despite the offensive line woes, Derrick Henry has been God-like in the backfield, earning 4.3 yards per attempt. The Dolphins defense is 13th in DVOA (11th pass, 20th run). They have a strong pass rush, ranking 5th in pressure rate and 7th in pass rush win rate. DE Bradley Chubb (46 pressures), DT Christian Wilkins (39), DT Zach Sieler (38), DE Andrew Van Ginkel (33), and DE Jaelan Phillips (27) are all capable of getting after the passer, giving Miami a decisive advantage in the trenches. The Dolphins also have a strong secondary - particularly since Jalen Ramsey returned week 8. Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliot represent one of the stronger safety tandems in football. If the Titans can keep things close, they can feed Henry, who should be able to generate yards against the Dolphins week run defense. However, if things get out of control, we could be in trouble.
Miami's offense is 2nd in DVOA (3rd pass, 2nd run). They have a strong offensive line (potentially weaker if LT Terron Armstead cannot play), a ridiculous 1-2 combination at both wide receiver (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) and running back (Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane), as well as Tua Tagovailoa, who currently ranks 3rd in PFF grades. The Titans defense is 22nd in DVOA, ranking significantly better against the run (1st in DVOA) than the pass (30th). Miami ranks 9th in situation-neutral pass rate, making this split rather unfortunate for this matchup. The Titans are strong up front and weak everywhere else. In addition to their prowess in the run game, the Titans front 7 ranks 7th in pressure rate (despite blitzing 25th most often) and 9th in pass rush win rate. DT Jeffery Simmmons, who leads the team with 46 pressures, suffered a knee injury last week and appears unlikely to play after missing Thursday/Friday practice. The Titans still have Denico Autry, Arden Key, and Harold Landry who are strong off the edge. Their secondary, unfortunately, looks to be in position to be torched by Hill and Waddle.