New Orleans (+4.0) @ LA Rams
Power rankings: New Orleans 13, LA Rams 14
Well shit, another Thursday Night game that I completely spaced on. Since it's now Friday, previewing it seems a bit meaningless. Spoiler alert: we lost.
Cleveland @ Houston (+2.5)
Power rankings: Cleveland 12, Houston 19
The Browns offense is 29th in DVOA (29th pass, 22nd run). Their once dominant line has been decimated by injuries, leaving a series of revolving door backups to protect 38 year old Joe Flacco. After LG Joel Bitonio (back/knee) was injured last week, the last remaining strong piece along the line is RG Wyatt Teller. Last week against a bad Bears pass rush, the Browns surrendered 18 pressures on 49 dropbacks and ranked 27th in pass-blocking efficiency (PFF). Meanwhile, Amari Cooper has been the only competent receiving option. Meanwhile, the Texans are 19th in DVOA, performing far better against the run (5th in DVOA) than the pass (23rd). Their defensive line has performed well this season, ranking 3rd in pass rush win rate, 2nd in run stop win rate, and 10th in pressure rate. They will likely be without rookie DE Will Anderson Jr, who has been the Texans best pass rusher this season. They should still be left with enough to overwhelm the Browns line, while Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley Jr have become a 1-2 punch at corner. Nelson has been a veteran presence throughout the season, while Stingley is in his second year. The third overall pick in 2022, Stingley struggled mightily his rookie season, but has played extremely well since returning from injury week 10. The Texans have problems in coverage, but they should have enough to keep Flacco in check.
The Texans are 13th in DVOA, performing far better as a passing unit (6th in DVOA) than running (29th). However, their passing offense is without their star quarterback (concussion) and possibly their best two receivers. Tank Dell (Fibula) is already out for the season, while Nico Collins (calf) missed last week. Collins is likely to be labeled questionable, but he has practiced all week as limited, which should at least give him a shot to play. Noah Brown stepped up last week with Stroud/Collins/Dell all out, catching 8 balls for 82 yards, while Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods provide a veteran presence. The offensive line, meanwhile, is slightly above average, which a few weaknesses at center and left guard. They'll have their work cut out of for them against the Browns, who are 1st in defensive DVOA (1st pass, 2nd run). The Browns are 2nd in pass rush win rate, 2nd in run stop win rate, and 4th in pressure rate. They are the best team in the league (by DVOA) against number 1 wide receivers, 6th against tight ends, and 5th against running backs as receivers. There truly isn't a weakness here. They remain dominant up front - Myles Garrett is yet again a defensive rookie of the year contender, while Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Shelby Harris complete one of the better defensive lines in football. Scoring against this defense is far from easy, especially with Case Keenum at quarterback.
Seattle (-2.5) @ Tennessee
Power rankings: Seattle 11, Tennessee 26
The Seahawks offense is 12th in DVOA (11th pass, 18th run). Their offensive line is one of the worst in football, but they're able to overcome that with efficient play from the quarterback and skill position players. Geno Smith (groin) missed the last two games, but he was technically active and ready to fill in last week if necessary, showing that he'll be good to go on Sunday. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain productive receivers, while Kenneth Walker plays well in the run game. The Titans defense is 20th in DVOA (27th pass, 11th run). Their defensive line is better as a pass rushing unit, ranking 8th in pass rush win rate and 7th in pressure rate, but just 23rd in run stop win rate. Their pass rush is also missing it's best player, DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) who has been out since week 13 and hasn't practiced yet this week. That said, Denico Autry, Arden Key, and Harold Landry leave them with plenty of solid contributors up front. The true weakness of the defense is in the secondary, where virtually every member has struggled - save for Roger McCreary.
The Titans offense is 23rd in DVOA (21st pass, 16th run). As of 12/22, we do not know who their starting quarterback will be, with Will Levis nursing an ankle injury. Levis is expected to be listed as questionable, but he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. If he can't go, Ryan Tannehill steps in. Levis and Tannehill are two very different quarterbacks, but the efficiency between the two is essentially negligible. The Titans feature one of the worst offensive lines in football with two productive skill players (DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry) and little else. The Seahawks defense is 24th in DVOA (26th pass, 21st run). They have been solid up front, ranking 9th in pass rush win rate and 7th in run stop win rate. They're also 11th in pressure rate despite blitzing 16th most often. Trade deadline acquisition DT Leonard Williams and DE Boye Mafe have both had great seasons, and should give the Seahawks a firm advantage in the trenches. The Seahawks secondary is a problem area, particularly as they will likely be without CB Devon Witerspoon (hip) and S Jamal Adams (knee).