Detroit (+3.0) @ New England
Power Rankings: Detroit 22, New England 27
Strength: 3.96
Spread thoughts: This line is sticking at 3.
Keys to the game: The Lions have scored 141 points this season. That's most in the league. They've also given up 142 points. That's also most in the league.
That all said, they're far from the best offense in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA and 8th in EPA/play. Jared Goff is his usual below average self, but the offense has a strong tackle duo (Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker), great receiving options (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, TJ Hockenson), and a quality running back (Jamaal Williams with D'Andre Swift out). St. Brown missed last week with an ankle injury and is officially questionable. He did get in one limited practice to end the week, which gives him a chance to play, but it's fair to call him questionable. The Patriots edge rushers of Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise is decent enough, but I'll take Sewell/Decker in that matchup. They'll need DT Christin Barmore to win against the Lions weaker interior lineman to generate pressure. The downfall for the Patriots defense (currently 19th in DVOA) has been CB Jalen Mills, who has a 29.3 grade from PFF. Mills missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable this week. It's likely a win for us if Mills plays.
The Patriots will be starting 4th rounder Bailey Zappe. They tried to make it seem like Mac Jones had a chance to play, but given his high ankle injury from two weeks ago, we never considered that a realistic possibility. Zappe was a community college quarterback in 2020, at Western Kentucky in 2021, and starting in the NFL in 2022. Even though he was a prolific passer last year, he clearly isn't ready for the NFL. The good news for the Patriots is it appears that top wideout Jokobi Meyers (knee) appears ready to return. They also have one of the best offensive lines in football and a great 1-2 punch at running back. The Lions defense is currently the worst in football, ranking dead last in DVOA. By PFF grades, rookie 6th rounder/Hard Knox favorite LB Malcom Rodriguez is the only starter with a PFF grade above 70 (he's at 70.5).
We'll take the better offense with the points.
Miami @ NY Jets (+3.5)
Power rankings: Miami 18, NY Jets 26
Strength: 2.405
Spread breakdown: This line moved off of 3.5 to 3. Get your damn bets in early.
Keys to the game: With Tua Tagovailoa concussed, the Dolphins will need to rely on Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a high end backup/low end starter, but is certainly a downgrade from Tua, especially since he typically doesn't work with the 1st team offense in practice. The strength of the Dolphins offense -- naturally -- is the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Even though both DJ Reed and rookie Sauce Gardner have been solid in coverage this season, both safeties have underperformed. You need a complete secondary effort to even contain Hill and Waddle, and the Jets haven't done it yet -- ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Jets advantage comes at pass rush, where Quinnen Williams, Carl Lawson, and John Franklin-Myers have all played well. Although the Dolphins offensive line improved greatly in the offseason by adding Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, they merely moved up from being worst in the league to not-quite-worst-in-the-league-but-still-horrible. There's still plenty of weaknesses for the Jets to attack.
Zach Wilson returned last week to complete 50% of his passes and gain 7.0 yards per attempt. PFF charted him with 4 turnover worthy plays in an on-brand debut from Wilson, who struggled immensely last season. The knock on Wilson was he simply wasn't ready for the NFL, an understandable position considering he made the jump from BYU. Wilson had a habit of holding onto the ball for too long without the usual excuse of throwing deep or scrambling -- he simply wasn't going through his progressions quick enough. Last week, Wilson averaged 3.31 seconds to throw, which is simply too slow even if you're Lamar Jackson. Given the state of the Jets offensive line, which has woefully underperformed (although they are getting LT Duane Brown back for the first time this season), the Dolphins pass rush (which is solid), and the Dolphins scheme tendencies (they blitz more than any team in football), this could be a long day for Wilson. WR Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis have both played well, while the Dolphins secondary has both been injured and playing badly (31st in pass defense DVOA). Even still, the safe bet is on the Dolphins pass rush overwhelming Wilson.
Luckily we have 3.5 points.
Dallas (+4.5) @ LA Rams
Power rankings: Dallas 13, LA Rams 10
Strength: 2.15
Spread thoughts: The Rams are now 5.5 point favorites. Unfortunately, the line moved away from the model.
Keys to the game: The Cowboys offense is 17th in DVOA, which reflects how talented their offense is while being held back by a backup quarterback. With CeeDee Lamb, a now healthy Michael Gallup, and an emerging Noah Brown, the Cowboys receivers should have an advantage against a Rams defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. Simply put, the Rams struggle at corner outside of Jalen Ramsey, giving teams with good depth at receiver an advantage. The matchup in the trenches should be interesting -- the Rams haven't had much of a pass rush outside of Aaron Donald, who's pedestrian numbers by his standards (16 pressures is 11th most in the league) is reflected by double team rate that no other player in the NFL faces. The Cowboys have struggled at the LG position, rotating between Connor McGovern and Jason Peters, which is exactly where Donald likes to attack. If Donald can take advantage, it could be good news for the Cowboys. If they are able to contain Donald, the rest of the Cowboys line will hold up well against the Rams pass rushers. The Cowboys do have a solid 1-2 punch at running back, but the Rams defensive line has been far better against the run, ranking 3rd in rush defense DVOA.
Matt Stafford is having a down year, ranking 19th in PFF grades. The offensive line is a shell of itself without LT Andrew Whitworth (retired), and newcomer Allen Robinson hasn't caught onto the new offense yet, which has become commonplace for receivers entering new teams. The result: the super bowl champs are just 26th in offensive DVOA, with only Cooper Kupp - PFF's highest graded receiver in 2022 -- playing well. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense is 5th in DVOA, relying on an outstanding pass rush (Michah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and ex-Ram Dante Fowler). Meanwhile, CB Trevon Diggs and S Malik Hooker are playing well in the secondary. Diggs will probably never have another 11 INT season (he has 2 thus far), but he's adopted a more conservative style that has held QB's in check, allowing a 54.8 passer rating into his coverage. Diggs has 6 pass breakups and hasn't committed a penalty this season, the latter truly reflects how he's matured from a season ago where he led the league in penalties. It sounds weird to say, but the Cowboys defense is the better side here.*
*Don't get mad at me if the Rams offense goes off. It's the NFL in 2022. Offense can always win no matter what the matchup is.