Seattle (+2.0) @ Arizona
Power rankings: Seattle 13, Arizona 23
Spread update: The line has moved slightly toward the model. Arizona is now 1.5 point favorites.
Keys to the game: Geno Smith trails only Josh Allen in PFF grades. His completion percentage of 72.7% is a full 7% above expectation. He's gaining 7.7 yards per attempt and has done a reasonable job limiting bad plays. Seattle has a strong receiving duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and an offensive line that doesn't have much in terms of weaknesses. They lost their star running back, but Kenneth Walker has done a fine job in replacing him. The Seahawks are 7th in DVOA, 5th passing, and 13th running. We didn't expect this at all, but it's time to admit that this is a very good offense. They're also up against a bad Cardinals defense. It's true that the Seahawks line isn't anything special, but the Cardinals are just 17th in pressure rate (22.3%) despite blitzing more often than any team except the Giants. They secondary doesn't have anyone capable of covering either Lockett or Metcalf one on one. The single matchup advantage that the Cardinals do have is DT Zach Allen vs the Seahawks interior line, but it won't be enough.
The Cardinals offense is 26th in DVOA and 21st in EPA/play. Kyler Murray is having a down year, completing 66.2% of his passes (1.6% below expectation) and gaining 6.1 yards per attempt. On the ground, he's fumbled 7 times in 8 games, although he is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. The offensive line is typically serviceable, but they're missing 3 starters. They do have a decent receiving core with DeAndre Hopkins hitting the ground running post suspension as well as Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. They've struggled on the ground, due in part by poor run blocking. The Seahawks defense is 11st in DVOA, but a much less favorable 21st in EPA/play. They can't generate much pressure outside of Uchenna Nwosu and their secondary is lacking outside of rookie Tariq Woolen and S Ryan Neal. The Cardinals have loads of offensive talent that can win their matchups, it's just a question of what team shows up.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Power rankings: LA Rams 16, Tampa Bay 6
Spread update: The line has moved toward the model. Tampa is now 3 point favorites.
Keys to the game: The Rams offense (23rd in DVOA) is a simple story: the offensive line has been one of the worst in the league, nobody outside of Cooper Kupp is playing well at the skill positions, and Matt Stafford is having a down year. Short of OBJ miraculously heeling and signing with the Rams overnight, their offensive woes will continue. The Bucs defense is 6th in DVOA, although their pass rush took a massive hit after losing Shaq Barrett. With CB Carlton Davis (hip) ready to return, they now have a strong corner duo with Davis and Jamel Dean. I think the Bucs are going to regress due to injury, but there's enough talent here to contain the Rams.
The Bucs offense sits at 18th in DVOA. Their offensive line is legit, particularly with LG Nick Leverett stepping in for Luke Goedeke. They'll need to stop Aaron Donald, which is virtually an impossible task, but the Rams don't have any reasonable pass rush talent outside of Donald, and the Bucs should be able to keep Brady upright. The Rams secondary doesn't have anybody behind Jalen Ramsey, and with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both playing well, I don't see the Rams being able to slow down both receivers. It's true that Brady is struggling, but he's still PFF's 12th highest graded QB and should have more than enough to take advantage of the Rams defensive issues.
Tennessee (+12.5) @ Kansas City
Power rankings: Tennessee 20, Kansas City 2
Spread update: The spread remains 12.5.
Keys to the game: I'm going to guess that Ryan Tannehill (ankle/questionable) will play, but if he can't the Titans will go to Malik Willis. They showed last week that they don't trust Willis at all, who attempted just 10 passes. With Kansas City ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA, it's important to establish an ariel attack. In the trenches, Kansas City has an average pass rush against a bad Titans offensive line. A potential mismatch is Chris Jones, one of the game's premier interior pass rushers who lines up wherever your weakness is. The Titans receiving core is weak, the best option being Robert Woods who has a tough matchup against slot CB L'Jarius Sneed. Derrick Henry's matchup is at least favorable as the Chiefs rank 17th in run defense DVOA.
There isn't much that we need to write about Kansas City's offense. They're one of the best in football -- Mahomes is battling with Josh Allen as the league's MVP, the offensive line is elite, and Travis Kelce is unstoppable. The Titans have been fine defensively (10th in DVOA), but could be without pass rushing beast DT Jeffery Simmons (questionable, ankle). If Simmons can't go, it could be a long night for the Titans. The Titans have also struggled covering tight ends this season. Their secondary can match up well against the Chiefs below average receivers, but there isn't nearly enough here to slow down the Chiefs juggernaut of an offense.