Chicago (27) @ Green Bay (6)
-Packers WR Randall Cobb was placed on IR with a core injury. Cobb, who may or may not be Aaron Rodgers best friend, was having a decently productive season as the Packers slot receiver. Allen Lazard should get more slot reps as a result, but it isn't a major downgrade.
-Packers LT David Bakhtiari returned to practice this week but will not play. He hasn't suited up yet this season. Bakhtiari is consistently one of the better tackles in the league and he's replacement, Yosh Nijman, has been below average. The Packers line will get boost when Bakhtiari returns, but that day isn't today.
-Packers LB De'Vondre Campbell should return after being activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Cambpell is an excellent player, grading well against the run, in coverage, and as a blitzer.
-Bears QB Andy Dalton, aka the Red Rocket, will miss due to a left hand injury. Rookie Justin Fields, who has been out with an injury to his ribs, practiced in full the entire week and will start.
-Bears WR Allen Robinson has been out since week 9 with a hamstring injury. He will return this week after getting in limited sesssions Wednesday/Thursday, and a full practice Friday. This is a big boost for the Bears receivers.
-Bears WR Marquise Goodwin is doubtful with a foot injury. Goodwin is an athletic freak, but has never been productive in his 8 year NFL career. With Robinson back, Goodwin was likely to see less snaps anyway.
-Bears DT Akiem Hicks will miss this one with an ankle injury. He hasn't played since week 9. Hicks has been one of the better tackles in football, but he's now 32 and often injured. He hasn't been a dominant force since 2019.
-Bears DT Mario Edwards Jr. is listed as questionable (ribs). He got in two full practices. That isn't questionable, you god damn liars.
Spread: When we ran the model last Tuesday, the spread was GB -12.5. It's since shifted to 11.5. At 12.5, the model preferred Chicago, but the strength of 1.63 isn't enough to warrant a bet. 11.5 is probably the perfect number. If you're waiting on Sunday to bet these, you're doing it wrong. 43% of tickets and 73% of cash is on the Bears.
Total: The total is at 43, a fair number for this one in my view. Since we don't have a model for totals, I must be extremely confident to bet it. 51% of tickets and 56% of cash is on the over.
Davante Adams o7.5 receptions +120 (Caesars): Adams is projected at 7.7 receptions, so I'm taking the side with dog odds. Aaron Rodgers will need to rely on Adams even more so with his good buddy Randall Cobb on IR. The Bears routinely get torched by #1 wide receivers, ranking 30th in DVOA against the position.
Aaron Rodgers o2.5 passing TDs +150 (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars): 2.5 is a high number, but we only need it to happen 40% of the time to make this bet +EV at +150. Rodgers, self-reported owner of the Bears, has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in 9 of 11 games. The Bears are 22nd in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense DVOA in the red zone.
Justin Fields does not throw an INT +150 (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars): This makes the math easy since we're getting the same odds as above -- we need Fields to not throw an INT 40% of the time to be +EV. Fields's 4.2% turnover worthy play rate is 7th highest in the league, but he's had 2 or less turnover worthy plays in all but 1 game this season. Before his injury to his ribs, he showed signs of improving his pocket awareness -- not allowing himself to be under pressure as often will help out in avoiding bad throws.