Tom Brady o2.5 passing TDs +115 (DraftKings): Brady's projected right at 2.5. Per usual, we're taking the juice on either side. Brady's Bucs are on the road in Atlanta, who are 29th in passing DVOA and 27th in red zone passing DVOA. By comparison, the Bucs are 1st in passing DVOA and 4th in red zone passing DVOA. Outside of second year corner AJ Terrell, the Falcons secondary makes me extremely sad. Brady is also second in the league in passes into the end zone with 33.
Matt Ryan does not throw an INT +140 (DraftKings/Caesars): This number is far too high. The market will look at Ryan and see a QB who plays behind a subar offensive line with weapons that consist of a rookie tight end, a swiss-army knife running back, and literally nothing else. They'll see his 11 INTs, 4th most in the league, against a Bucs team that is 6th in defensive DVOA. However, a closer look shows that Ryan has had some brutal INT-luck this year -- his 2.8% turnover worthy play percentage is 10th best in the league among 30 qualifiers. That's the exact same rate as Aaron Rodgers, who has just 4 INTs this season. Ryan has 8 games this season where he threw 1 or less turnover worthy plays. Bet on regression and fade INT stats.
Jalen Hurts o1.5 passing TDs +155 (Caesars): This matches Hurts' projection, we're getting +155, and he's playing the Jets. Further explanation should not be required.
Kalif Raymond o25.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet): This number is simply too low, as Raymond is projected at 36.9 receiving yards. Raymond has put up a couple stinkers as of late, with receiving totals of a big fat goose egg and 16 in his last two games. However, he's gone over this number in 6/11 games. He's still running in 2 WR sets with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the Lions are projected to throw a lot as a 7 point dog against Minnesota that has a total of 46.5.
Ja'Marr Chase o63.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings, Caesars): Chase's projection is at 72.3. I like the game environment for Chase -- his Bengals are up against the Chargers, which has a total of 50.5. Chase averages about 82 yards/game.