The projections I use are here and the prop lines can be found here. I'm also using unabated's free prop tool to check the projections vs the line to see if there's value.
Zach Wilson does not throw an INT +170 (Caesars): A +170 wager needs to happen more than 37.04% of the time to be profitable. Yes, I'm aware that Zach Wilson has a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.0%, 10th worst in the NFL. I'm aware that the Jets are playing the Bucs, making them double-digit dogs, which will require Wilson to dropback a lot. I'm aware that the Bucs have the third best pass defense by DVOA. However, as noted in the preview blog, the Bucs are banged up on defense. Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David are out. S Antoine Winfieldand (foot), CB Janel Dean (COVID), and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (COVID-19) are likely out. +170 is too steep of a price to pass this up.
Matt Stafford o2.5 passing TDs +165 (Caesars): Stafford has had 3 or more TD passes in 8/15 games this season. He's up against a Ravens defense that, due to a slew of injuries, is throwing out one of the worst secondaries in all of football, as noted in the preview blog here. At +165, we need this to happen more than 37.74% of the time.
Kyler Murray does not throw an INT +115 (Caesars): Murray's 10 INTs in 12 games this season is a farce. His turnover worthy play percentage is 2.3%, 5th best in the league. Yes, he's playing Trevon Diggs and the Cowboys, but INTs are far more about the quarterback than anything else. I'll take Murray at dog odds to not throw a pick whenever offered.