First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

  • Home
  • Power Rankings
  • DomModel
  • Results
  • …  
    • Home
    • Power Rankings
    • DomModel
    • Results
First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

  • Home
  • Power Rankings
  • DomModel
  • Results
  • …  
    • Home
    • Power Rankings
    • DomModel
    • Results
First and Thirty

Sunday Prop Bets: Week 17

· Brady,Week 17 2021,Prop Bets

The projections I use are here and the prop lines can be found here. I'm also using unabated's free prop tool to check the projections vs the line to see if there's value.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Zach Wilson does not throw an INT +170 (Caesars): A +170 wager needs to happen more than 37.04% of the time to be profitable. Yes, I'm aware that Zach Wilson has a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.0%, 10th worst in the NFL. I'm aware that the Jets are playing the Bucs, making them double-digit dogs, which will require Wilson to dropback a lot. I'm aware that the Bucs have the third best pass defense by DVOA. However, as noted in the preview blog, the Bucs are banged up on defense. Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David are out. S Antoine Winfieldand (foot), CB Janel Dean (COVID), and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (COVID-19) are likely out. +170 is too steep of a price to pass this up.

Matt Stafford o2.5 passing TDs +165 (Caesars): Stafford has had 3 or more TD passes in 8/15 games this season. He's up against a Ravens defense that, due to a slew of injuries, is throwing out one of the worst secondaries in all of football, as noted in the preview blog here. At +165, we need this to happen more than 37.74% of the time. 

Joe Burrow does not throw an INT +105 (Caesars): As noted in the preview blog, Joe Burrow leads the league with 14 INTs. However, his turnover worthy play percentage of 2.6% is 9th best in the league. 

Boston Scott u47.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Scott is going to step in to handle the Eagles RB carries with Miles Sanders (hand) out. However, this number is too high. Scott's projection is at 41.2.

Rhamondre Stevenson u53.5 -110 (FanDuel): This line is bonkers. Stevenson is projected at 38.7 yards. Stevenson returns this week after missing last week with COVID-19, but he still should be the Pats 2nd preferred back to Damien Harris.

Tom Brady o276.5 -118 (BetMGM): This number is too low, Brady is projected at 292.4 yards against the Jets secondary that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.

Sunday 4PM slate

Kyler Murray does not throw an INT +115 (Caesars): Murray's 10 INTs in 12 games this season is a farce. His turnover worthy play percentage is 2.3%, 5th best in the league. Yes, he's playing Trevon Diggs and the Cowboys, but INTs are far more about the quarterback than anything else. I'll take Murray at dog odds to not throw a pick whenever offered. 

Kyle Juszczyk o9.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): The prop market hasn't learned. They are again back to disrespecting the football God Juszczyk. He's gone over this number in 9/15 games, and is projected at 12 yards.

Russ Wilson o11.5 rushing yards -115 (Caesars): This number is simply too low, Wilson is projected at 17 yards.

Sunday Night Football

Dalvin Cook o14.5 receiving yards -113 (FanDuel): This number is too low, Cook is projected at 24.3 yards. With Kirk Cousins (COVID) out, the Vikings are now 13 point dogs to the Packers. The Vikings will likely be chasing points and will therefore need to throw a lot.

 

 

 

Previous
Recommended Wager: Seattle (-7.0) over Detroit
Next
MNF Betting Thoughts: Week 17
 Return to site
Cancel
All Posts
×

Almost done…

We just sent you an email. Please click the link in the email to confirm your subscription!

OK