This was published at 4:00 PM on Friday, Februray 11th. I don't see any lines posted for the tight ends on either side due to Higbee and Uzomah injuries, depending on when they get posted I may add more in.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp o0.5 rushing yards +250 (Caesars): Though Kupp only has 5 rushing attempts this season, I think there's a much better than the 28.57% probability implied with the line. Jet Sweeps are an insanely efficient play, teams averaged 0.23 EPA/attempt in the 2021 season when running Jet Sweep. For reference, the Colts had the best rushing attack this season at 0.061 EPA/attempt. The Packers had the best passing offense at 0.211 EPA/attempt. The Jet Sweep being more efficient than the best passing offense in all of football is bonkers. You don't see Jet Sweeps as often throughout the regular season because it requires the receiver to run full speed without any blockers in front of him, therefore creating an injury risk. However, this is the motherfucking Super Bowl, and teams have consistently handed the ball off to receivers in the big game. In the last 5 Super Bowls, only the 2016 Falcons didn't hand the ball off to a receiver at least once. Since Kupp had a rushing attempt in the Conference Championship, he's the guy I'm betting on to get another shot in the Super Bowl.
Cam Akers u65.5 rushing yards -125 (PointBet): Akers is projected at 61.5. Given his projection, unabated priced this at -162. As mentioned in the preview blog, Akers has not been as effective as rusher since returning from an Achilles injury and injured his shoulder in the Conference Championships. It also sounds like Darrel Henderson should return, further eating into Akers workload.
Joe Burrow does not throw an INT +115 (Caesars): I mentioned in the preview blog why Burrow's INT numbers are a farce. This is simply a bet on regression. Burrow does an excellent job keeping the ball out of harm's way -- I'll take him with dog odds to not throw an INT whenever offered.
Ja'Marr Chase o3.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): See Kupp analysis on why I like receivers rushing in the Super Bowl. Chase's rushing attempts are more of a certainty, though. He's had 12 attempts on the year and at least 1 in every playoff game, including 3 in the Wild Card round. The Bengals might have issues finding Chase deep against a Rams defense that specializes in preventing deep passes, and this is another way to get him involved.
Joe Mixon u3.5 receptions +110 (Caesars): This matches Mixon's projection, so I'm only taking this if there's dog odds. At even money it's a fair price, if it's dog odds it's a no bet. I do think the Bengals need to use Mixon in the passing game (read why in the preview), but that doesn't mean they'll necessarily do it. Though the Bengals likely won't hand the ball off to anybody except Mixon, Samaje Perine is involved in the passing game -- Perine ran a route on 15/44 dropbacks in the Conference Championships. Mixon ran a route on 22 dropbacks, so he's still the leader in the clubhouse, but Perine will bite into Mixon's receiving workload. Mixon has gone under this number in 11/20 games.
Tee Higgins o5.5 receptions +110 (BetMGM): Higgins is projected right at 5.5, so I'm taking this bet with dog odds only. See above for more, and proceed with caution.