Kansas City (3) @ LA Chargers (11)
-The Chiefs can fuck off listing RT Andrew Wylie (knee) as questionable. He practiced in full all week.
-Chiefs DT Chris Jones is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and will not play. Jones is one of the league's premier interior pass rushers. This is a big loss for the defense.
-Chiefs LB Willie Gay is also on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, but they may be better without him.
-Chiefs CB L'aJarius Sneed (personal) will not play. Sneed had a fantastic rookie season, but he's slipped off in his second year.
-Chiefs CB Charvarius Ward (illness) was moved to questionable. This just came in late Thursday afternoon. The Chiefs CB room will take a hit if he can't go.
-Chargers RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) will play despite his questionable tag.
-Chargers LT Rashawn Slater is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and will not play. Slater was taken 13th overall in this years draft and has been fantastic all season. I will shed a tear that he won't be on the field.
-Chargers CB Asante Samuel Jr. (concussion) looks good to return for the first time since week 11. He was limited in practice all week.
-Chargers S Alohi Gilman (quad) is questionable. He hasn't played since week 10, but got in two limited sessions Tuesday/Wednesday. Gilman is mediocre at best, I don't expect his status to have much of an impact.
-Chargers S Derwin James (hamstring) is questionable. He was inactive last week, but got in two limited sessions Tuesday/Wednesday. James is a a fantastic safety who the Chargers use everywhere on the field.
Spread: The line has stayed solid at 3. It's one of the few games we didn't recommend. Don't fucking bet it. 71% of tickets on KC, but 65% of cash is on the Chargers.
Total: The total is a sky high 54. Those these are two elite offenses, I always lean under in divisional matchups with a total this high.
Jalen Guyton u1.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings, Caesars): This matches Guyton's projection, so I'm happy to take dog odds on either side. With Keenan Allen back, I'd expect Guyton to be behind Allen, Williams, Ekeler, and Cook for preferred targets. He's gone under this number in 10/13 games.
Donald Parham o10.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings, FanDuel): Parham, a former XFL God, is projected at 18.2 yards. He's gone over this number in 4 of his last 6.
Tyreek Hill o77.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Hill is projected at 84.3, this number is simply too low.