Andy Dalton o1.5 TDs +125 (DraftKings): The Red Rocket gets the nod after rookie Justin Fields injured his ribs last week. This line matches his projection -- taking either side with dog odds is logical, but I'm happy it's the over. Dalton may be a soulless ginger, but it's Thanksgiving. We're supposed to be greatful/happy and all that shit. He's also playing the Lions, who have the worst pass defense in the league by DVOA. Their collection of corners made me cry while analyzing the game.
Dak Prescott o9.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Dak's projection is at 16.5, this number is simply too low. Seveal QBs have gone over this number against the Raiders, including 3 of the last 4 -- Joe Borrow (11), Daniel Jones (17), and Jalen Hurts (61).
Kenyan Drake o10.5 receiving yards -125 (PointsBet): Drake's projection is 18.6. He's gone over this number in 3 of his last 5, and the game's total (51) projects for lots of offense.
Josh Allen u1.5 passing TDs +150 (Caesars): Sorry, I have to get some unders in. Allen is projected at 2 TDs, but the juice on this is too tempting. He's up against a very legit Saints defense (analyzed further here) who have the 6th best red zone passing defense by DVOA.
Dawson Knox u34.5 receiving yards -102 (FanDuel): Knox is projected at 31 yards, and the Saints have the 5th best DVOA against tight ends.