You came here to find out which bets have value. We are here to say: none (according to our lord and savior, DomModel).
This doesn't happen often, but certainly has before and probably will again. Betting sides is extremely difficult -- the market is scary efficient and the vig is a very real thing, so finding a side that has value after factoring in the vig isn't easy. With 4 teams on bye and less games to decide from, our model found jack squat this week.
We post the model output for every game every week. As you can see, the best bet we have is the Dolphins +7.5 against Baltimore. The strength of that bet is 2.81, and we like to see a strength of 3 before recommending bets. The strength of 3 represents the top 25% of model picks and, based on our analysis, is the sweet spot for finding edges. Further, given the situation with Tua's finger, I'm inclined to think that the strength on that game is actually a bit inflated.
We'll still have some content coming out this week, including analysis on all 3 primetime games and some player props we'll be targeting. Stay tuned.