The projections I use are here and the prop lines can be found here. I'm also using unabated's free prop tool to check the projections vs the line to see if there's value.
Sunday 1pm slate
Ryan Tannehill 01.5 passing TDs +130 (Caesars): This matches Tannehill's projection. The Titans do need to win to clinch the top seed and are up against a Texans team that ranks 19th in DVOA defending the pass.
Andy Dalton does not throw an INT +150 (BetMGM): We need Dalton to not throw a pick over 40% of the time for this to be profitable. Dalton's 3.2% turnover worthy play ratio is respectable, and he's facing a Vikings defense that is downright awful at the corner position. They're a middle of the road pass defense by DVOA (ranking 16th), and are 13th as a team in total INTs..
Jake Fromm o166.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars): Yes, Fromm has looked awful in his limited snaps as the Giants QB, but I really don't care. There are no bad QBs, only bad prices, and Fromm's projection of 207.9 says this is a bad price. He's up against the Football Team, who ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are also 7 point dogs, meaning Fromm will have to throw. It's common to see the market underestimate the yardage on a backup QB.
Johnathan Taylor o10.5 rushing yards (FanDuel): The Colts have a shot at the playoffs, and therefore will go all out in their game against the Jags. Taylor is projected at 14.8 yards.
Sunday 4pm slate
Tyler Higbee u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM/Caesars): This matches Higbee's projection with dog odds. Sign me up.
Rob Gronkowski u5.5 receptions +155 (Caesars): Gronk is projected at 4.8 catches. Getting +155 on the under doesn't make any sense. There's somewhat of a chance Tampa Bay, who has clinched the division and cannot get the 1 seed, rests their starters. Tampa is a 9 point favorite against Carolina -- that line is certainly baking in that possibility.
George Kittle o5.5 receptions +145 (DraftKings): Kittle is projected at 5.4 catches. +145 on this line does not make any sense.
Kyle Juszczyk o8.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): I will continue betting this every week I can until the market finally figures it out. Juszczyk is projected at 14.5 yards.
Taysom Hill o1.5 passing TDs +180 (Caesars): Hill has seen significant snaps at QB in 8 games in the last 2 years. In those 8 games, he's thrown 7 TDs. So yeah, not exactly a great chance that this goes over. However, at +180, we only need this to go over 35.71% of the time, and Hill has gone over this in 3 of those 8 games. He's also up against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Sunday Night Football
Jared Cook u2.5 receptions +135 (BetMGM): Cook is projected exactly at 2.5 catches. You know the drill, take the side with dog odds.