Sunday 1pm slate
Ryan Tannehill 01.5 passing TDs +130 (Caesars): This matches Tannehill's projection. The Titans do need to win to clinch the top seed and are up against a Texans team that ranks 19th in DVOA defending the pass.
Andy Dalton does not throw an INT +150 (BetMGM): We need Dalton to not throw a pick over 40% of the time for this to be profitable. Dalton's 3.2% turnover worthy play ratio is respectable, and he's facing a Vikings defense that is downright awful at the corner position. They're a middle of the road pass defense by DVOA (ranking 16th), and are 13th as a team in total INTs..
Jake Fromm o166.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars): Yes, Fromm has looked awful in his limited snaps as the Giants QB, but I really don't care. There are no bad QBs, only bad prices, and Fromm's projection of 207.9 says this is a bad price. He's up against the Football Team, who ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are also 7 point dogs, meaning Fromm will have to throw. It's common to see the market underestimate the yardage on a backup QB.
Johnathan Taylor o10.5 rushing yards (FanDuel): The Colts have a shot at the playoffs, and therefore will go all out in their game against the Jags. Taylor is projected at 14.8 yards.
Sunday 4pm slate
Tyler Higbee u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM/Caesars): This matches Higbee's projection with dog odds. Sign me up.
Rob Gronkowski u5.5 receptions +155 (Caesars): Gronk is projected at 4.8 catches. Getting +155 on the under doesn't make any sense. There's somewhat of a chance Tampa Bay, who has clinched the division and cannot get the 1 seed, rests their starters. Tampa is a 9 point favorite against Carolina -- that line is certainly baking in that possibility.
George Kittle o5.5 receptions +145 (DraftKings): Kittle is projected at 5.4 catches. +145 on this line does not make any sense.
Kyle Juszczyk o8.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): I will continue betting this every week I can until the market finally figures it out. Juszczyk is projected at 14.5 yards.
Taysom Hill o1.5 passing TDs +180 (Caesars): Hill has seen significant snaps at QB in 8 games in the last 2 years. In those 8 games, he's thrown 7 TDs. So yeah, not exactly a great chance that this goes over. However, at +180, we only need this to go over 35.71% of the time, and Hill has gone over this in 3 of those 8 games. He's also up against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Sunday Night Football
Jared Cook u2.5 receptions +135 (BetMGM): Cook is projected exactly at 2.5 catches. You know the drill, take the side with dog odds.