Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
LA Rams (+1.5) @ Arizona
Power Rankings: LAR 11, Ari 26
Strength: 5.36
Line closed: Pick Em, line moved toward the model
Result: LOSS
Buffalo (+2.5) @ Miami
Power Rankings: Buffal 4, Miami 9
Strength: 3.68
Line closed: MIA -2.5, line stayed the same
Result: WIN
LA Chargers @ Carolina (+6.5)
Power Rankings: LAC 22, CAR 32
Strength: 2.43
Line closed: LAC -4.5, line moved toward the model
Result: LOSS
Seattle @ New England (+3.5)
Power Rankings: SEA 15, NE 25
Strength: 2.32
Line closed: SEA -3.0, line moved toward the model
Result: WIN
Recap: 2-2 overall, with closing line value in 3/4 games with 1 line remaining the same. We got NE in at +3.5 when it closed at 3.0, a big move, and ended up covering the spread by half a point. Overall, a solid week.
Props:
Tua Tagovailoa o33.5 passing attempts -100 (FanDuel): LOSS -1 unit
Malik Willis o162.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): LOSS -1 unit
Jacoby Brissett o181.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): LOSS -1 unit
Derek Carr o215.5 passing yards -117 (Caesars): WIN +0.85 units
Jonanathan Taylor u80.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): LOSS -1 unit
Evan Engram u4.5 receptions +106 (FanDuel): Engram was injured pregame and did not play. Bet cancels.
Trey McBride o5.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): WIN +1.2 units
Rashee Rice o6.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings): LOSS -1 unit
Props recap: 2-5, -2.95 units. Brutal. The Tua bet would have hit if not for his concussion - Tua and backup QB Skylar Thompson combined for 39 pass attempts.
Previous recaps:
Week 1 Recap: Big Wins, Small Losses
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Total: 6-5
Props record:
Week 1: 5-4, +0.43 units
Week 2: 2-5 -2.95 units
Total: 7-9 -2.51 units