Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size. I'm also going to be reviewing what the lines closed at and compare that to where we bet them. We typically bet games on Tuesday, and have stressed over the years how important it is to get your damn bets in early. Dom and I have both noticed that lines tend to move toward the model, meaning we're grabbing value early in the week that is no longer available as the market wises up. I think it'll be fun to actually track that, if nothing else to see if Dom and I are full of shit.
NY Giants @ Green Bay (+8.0)
Line closed: GB -9.5, line moved toward the model
Our process of selecting wagers is based on the model, naturally, but I personally love seeing where it's taking advantage of potential recency bias. The 3-1 Giants came into this game with a much better record than they deserve, and the Packers just needed overtime to win at home against a Patriots team that was relying on their third string quarterback.
Green Bay jumped out to an early 17-3 lead. The Giants offensive drives then went as follows: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown. With the Packers only scoring a field goal in between, they were now losing 27-20, sealing our fate.
Aaron Rodgers gained just 5.7 yards per attempt against the Giants defense. On defense, Rashad Gary was a non factor as a pass rusher and Jaire Alexander underperformed. It's certainly time for me to give a big boost to the Giants in our power rankings.
Final score: NY Giants 27, Green Bay 22
Pittsburgh (+14.0) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -14, line remained the same
There isn't much to say about this one. It was a good old fashioned ass whopping.
Final score: Buffalo 38, Pittsburgh 3
Chicago @ Minnesota (-7.0)
Line closed: MIN -8.5, line moved toward the model
Minnesota looked to be in complete control, leading 21-10 at the half. Similar to the Green Bay game, things went poorly for us quickly. To start the second half, the drives went as follows:
-Minnesota missed FG
-Kirk Cousins interception
And just like that, Chicago was winning outright. Luckily for us, Minnesota answered back with a touchdown of their own, which gave us a push. If you were in on this game late, you lost due to the way the line moved.
Final score: Minnesota 29, Chicago 22
Detroit (+3.0) @ New England
Line closed: NE -3.0, line remained the same
Even against a 3rd string quarterback who was playing community college football 2 seasons ago, it wasn't a total surprise that the Patriots offense was able to put up points against the Lions "defense." The shock came from the other side, where the Lions offense -- ranked 1st in points scored and 8th in offensive DVOA coming into the week -- put up a big fat goose egg. This one was never close.
Final score: New England 29, Detroit 0
Miami @ NY Jets (+3.5)
Line closed: MIA -3.0, line moved toward the model
Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion, forcing Skylar Thompson into action, a rookie 7th rounder out of Kansas State. Thompson was predictably bad, throwing an interception and fumbling while only gaining 5.0 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson had arguably his best game as a pro, gaining 10.0 yards per attempt and completing 66.7% of his passes, good for an 81.9 PFF grade. Wilson was blitzed on 50% of dropbacks, but he was still under pressure just 20% of the time. It was a genuine surprise at how well the Jets line held up and how Wilson handled the blitz. Props to them.
Final score: NY Jets 40, Miami 17
Dallas (+4.5) @ LA Rams
Line closed: LA Rams -5.0, line moved away from the model (although insignificantly)
It sounds weird to say, but the Rams offensive line was predictably dominated by the Cowboys pass rush. Despite averaging 2.65 seconds to throw, Matt Stafford was under pressure on 42.6% of dropbacks, where he averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt. Osa Odighizuwa (7 pressures), Michah Parsons (6), and Demarcus Lawrence (6) all consistently won in the trenches, resulting in a stagnant Rams offense. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliot combined for 164 yards, giving the Cowboys all the offense they needed.
Final score: Dallas 22, LA Rams 10
Sides recap: We went 2-3-1 for a losing week, which puts us a bit below .500 after we lost last week. These are all small sample results that don't matter at all. More importantly, we had 2 lines move off of key numbers toward the model. Of the 6 games we bet, only 1 moved away from the model, an insignificant 4.5 to 5.0.
Andy Dalton u245.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Dalton threw for just 187 yards. WIN +1 unit
Darnell Mooney u3.5 receptions +133 (Caesars): Mooney continues his down year, catching just 2 balls. WIN +1.33 units
Justin Jefferson o6.5 receptions +118 (FanDuel): Justin Jefferson went off, catching 12 balls for 154 yards. WIN +1.18 units
Zay Jones u3.5 receptions +125 (BetMGM): Zay Jones caught 3 balls. Close one. WIN +1.25 units.
Leonard Fournette u3.5 receptions +130 (PointBet): When I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Fournette caught 10 balls for 83 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Dameon Pierce u70.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Pierece had 99 yards on 26 carries. LOSS -1.15 units
Kareem Hunt u45.5 rushing yards -125 (PointBet): God dammit, Kareem Hunt had 47 yards rushing. LOSS -1.25 units
Caleb Huntley u30.5 rushing yards -125 (PointBet): Ugh, Huntley had 34 yards. LOSS -1.25 units.
Zach Ertz u47.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): What. the fuck. Ertz had 48 yards receiving. LOSS -1.1 units
Rondale Moore u34.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Like any good gambler, I have a short memory. Moore had 68 receiving yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Props recap: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Season total: 15-16-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Season total: 24-27, -3.78 units