Interestingly enough, I ended up on a lot of overs here. I'm a firm believer that there tends to be more value in unders, but I'll ride any train to value town.
Darren Waller o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): Waller is back healthy. Last week he played on 62/80 snaps and ran a route on 41/46 dropbacks. He's projected at exactly 5.5 receptions, so I'm taking dog odds on either side, but it's worth noting that we shouldn't expect any kind of limitations on Waller. The Raiders are 5.5 point dogs and the total is 48.5, the game environment calls for plenty of Derek Carr passes and lots of scoring.
Ja'Marr Chase o70.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Chase is projected at 80.2 yards. Although I don't love the matchup for Chase -- he's a deep ball receiver and the Raiders scheme against such throws (full breakdown here), I cannot ignore a bet that differs to such a degree from the projections.
Stefon Diggs o6.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings): Diggs is projected at 6.9 (nice) receptions. Though he's facing a stingy Patriots defense, it's more about taking the dog odds on whatever side is offered.
Mac Jones does not throw an INT +110 (DraftKings): The Patriots are a run first team, ranking 27th in situation neutral early-down pass rate. The game in Buffalo projects to be freezing cold, and it's reasonable to assume that the Patriots will attempt to limit Jones's pass attempts. This obviously won't be the case if the Patriots fall behind, but even still, he's projected at just 33.3 pass attempts (third lowest of the weekend). Only 2.5% of Jones's passes this year were deemed "turnover worthy" by PFF. I'll take dog odds on him not throwing in INT in any game environment, but this one in particular sets up well for Jones.
Jakobi Meyers o4.5 receptions +134 (FanDuel): Meyers is projected at 5.9 receptions. I'd take any dog odds on the over at 4.5, but +134 is just silly. Sign me up.
Deebo Samuel o4.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings): Samuel is projected at 5.5 receptions. Although this isn't quite as great as the Meyers prop, I'm always taking dog odds on a full reception below his projection.
Dak Prescott o7.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): This number is simply too low, Prescott is projected at 16.1 rushing yards.
Tom Brady o2.5 passing TDs +170 (Caesars): Brady, at a young age of 44, led the league this season with 43 touchdowns. He threw more than 2 touchdowns in 8/17 games this season. He's going up against an Eagles defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. While it's true that Brady's weapons are depleted due to injury/quitting mid game, I can't pass up these odds. We need this to happen over 37% of the time to be +EV.
Tom Brady o268.5 -114 (FanDuel): There isn't anything complicated about this one, Brady is projected at 285.9 yards.
Leonard Fournette u5.5 receptions -128 (BetMGM): Fournette is projected at 4.1 receptions. Per the above referenced prop betting tool from unabated, -333 is a fair line for 5.5 receptions. Fournette is also coming off a hamstring injury, and won't be 100%, per profootballdoc.
Jalen Hurts o193.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Hurts is projected at 235 yards. As 8.5 point dogs against the Bucs, the Eagles will likely be trailing and will need to throw.
Monday Night Football
Kyler Murray u38.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): Murray is projected at 33.7 yards. Given the projection, unabated has -203 is a fair price at 38.5