Cincinnati @ Kansas City
Joe Burrow does not throw an INT +110 (BetMGM): Many will look at this line and see a Bengals team that projects to be chasing points, therefore leaving Burrow to drop back often. They'll see that has 15 INTs, 4th most in the league. However, regular readers will know that using INTs to predict future INTs is not a wise move -- tipped and dropped passes can skew those numbers in either direction. Per PFF, Burrow has the 4th best turnover worthy play rate in the NFL (2.1%), and hasn't thrown a single turnover worthy play in his last 5 games. This is simply a bet on INT regression.
Pat Mahomes u30.5 rushing yards -125 (PointBet): Mahomes is projected at 25.9 yards. Per unabated, u30.5 should therefore be at -219. This number is likely too high due to recency bias, as Mahomes ran wild last week for 69 yards (nice). The Chiefs hardly ever design rushes for Mahomes, his running comes purely from scrambling. The need to scramble shouldn't be as high this week since the Bills have a much stronger secondary than the Bengals.
Travis Kelce o6.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel): Kelce is projected right at 6.5, so if the over has dog odds, that's what we're taking. I like this matchup in particular for Kelce, the Bengals are 24th in DVOA against tight ends. The Chiefs are also 7 point favorites with a game total of 54.5. There will be points.
Ja'Marr Chase o83.5 receiving yards -114 (DraftKings): Once again, the market is too low on Chase. He's projected at 91.9 yards.
Tee Higgins o5.5 receptions +125 (DraftKings): Higgins is projected exactly at 5.5, so I'd take dog odds on either side.
San Francisco @ LA Rams
Cam Akers u2.5 receptions +120 (Caesars): Akers is projected at 2.3, you know the drill by now with dog odds. The 49ers have been stingy against running backs as receivers all year, ranking 4th in DVOA.
Cam Akers u61.5 rushing yards -111 (BetMGM): I don't mean to hate on Cam, I'm still in disbelief that he's even playing, let alone taking complete control of the Rams backfield. Last week, Akers had 24 rushing attempts. Sony Michel had 1. But still, this number is too high. Akers is projected at 55.5 yards, and I simply cannot ignore value. Per unabated, u61.5 should be at -197 given his projection.
Kyle Juszczyk o8.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings): That's right bitches, I'm back on the Juice train. Juszczyk train. This number is well shy of his 16.5 projection. He ran a route on 13/24 dropbacks last week, the 49ers are clearly still utilizing the fullbacks skills as a receiver.