Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
With just 2 games to chose from, the model took a hard pass on both. We did have 8 props between both games, which went 5-3 and won 2.37 units.
-Burrow had a pick and 2 turnover worthy throws. Not ideal, but I'm sure the cigar tasted just as sweet.
-Mahomes finished with 19 rushing yards. I thought for sure we were screwed after he busted out an 11 yard scramble on the first drive, but luckily things went as predicted from there.
-Kelce finished with 10 catches. He predictably demolished a Bengals team that sits at 24th in DVOA against tight ends.
-Chase had 54 yards, falling well shy of his 83.5 line.
-Higgins finished with 6 catches. He snagged two balls in overtime to hit his over. That was fortunate.
-Akers finished with 48 yards rushing (just 3.7 YPC) and 1 catch for 2 yards. He's a badass, but not quite himself yet.
-Juszczyk wasn't even targeted. You don't need to look any further than this to figure out why the 49ers lost.
Sides recommendations:
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 5: It's Raining On First And Thirty (0-2, -2 units)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, -2 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (0-4, -6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 14: Success, Finally (2-0, +2 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (6-3, +3 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (4-0, +4 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (3-2, +1 unit)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (3-1, +2 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (0-3, -3 units)
Division: So Long, Number 1 Seeds (2-0, +2 units)
Conference: Props Come Through (0-0, even)
Season total: 33-25, +7 units
Props recommendations:
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, -3.74 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (4-11, -7.6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (7-4, +4.23 units)
Week 14: Success, Finally (8-4, +5.34 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (1-2, -1.1 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (7-5, +3.22 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (7-5, +2.47 units)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (2-8, -5.8 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (7-4, +3.6 units)
Division: So Long, Number 1 Seeds (5-5, -0.25 units)
Conference: Props Come Through (5-3, +2.37 units)
Season total: 68-63, +10.76 units