Cincinnati @ Tennessee
TEN -4, O/U 48
Derrick Henry u85.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): The big dog is back, but isn't 100%. He's a freak of nature, but still a 250 pound dude with a foot injury. He's projected at 77.9 yards, take the under.
Ja'Marr Chase o77.5 receiving yards -115 (FanDuel): Chase is projected at 93.8 yards, sign me up for the over. The Bengals are 4 point dogs, and will therefore need to throw against a Titans defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against deep passes.
San Francisco @ Green Bay
GB -5.5, O/U 47.5
Aaron Rodgers o7.5 rushing yards -105 (FanDuel): Rodgers's infamous not-COVID toe is fully healed, allowing him to scramble. Against a 49ers defensive line that will include Nick Bosa lining up against Billy Turner, the 49ers should be able to get pressure on Rodgers, creating more scenarios for him to scramble. This bet is backed by the projections, which has Rodgers at 10.6 yards.
AJ Dillon o8.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Dillon is projected at 15.1 yards. He's gone over 8.5 in 7 of his last 9 games. From weeks 12-17 (ignoring week 18 since the Packers rested starters), Dillon has run 72 routes to Aaron Jones's 97, showing his involvement in the passing game.
Deebo Samuel u40.5 rushing yards -105 (PointBet): I love Deebo as much as the next guy, but he's projected at 27.4 yards. His running game expanded in week 10, and since then he's gone under this number in 5/9 games. The game script doesn't favor the running game, with the Packers being 5.5 point favorites.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay
TB -3, O/U 47.5
Tom Brady o2.5 passing TDs +150 (Caesars): +150 means we need Brady to hit 3 touchdowns on 40% of games. He's gone over this number in 8/18 games and has had at least 2 touchdowns in 13/18 games. The Bucs passing offense is injured, but I can't pass up the odds in what projects to be a high scoring game.
Rob Gronkowski u5.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings). Gronkowski has become a focal point of the Bucs passing attack with Chris Godwin (ACL) and Antonio Brown (quit) out. However, he's projected at 4.9 receptions, so I'm taking dog odds on either side of this bet. With RT Tristan Wirfs nursing an ankle sprain and the Rams supporting the best defensive line in football, it's also possible Gronk may need to pass block more than normal. If Wirfs can't go, backup RT Josh Wells is a major drop off.
Cooper Kupp o99.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Yes, this is a high number, but I'm still taking the over. Kupp is coming off a legendary season, and is projected at 107.9 yards. He's dropped a c-note on opposing defenses in 11 of 18 games, including 9 of his last 13.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
KC -1.5, O/U 54
Josh Allen u280.5 passing yards -105 (Caesars): As high scoring as this game projects to be, this number is just too high. Allen is projected at 269.2 yards. He's gone under this number in 6 of his last 9 games.
Byron Pringle o30.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet). Pringle has emerged as a legit receiving option on the Chiefs. From week 12 on, he's run more routes than any receiver on the Chiefs (yes, including Tyreek Hill). His projection is 42.8, and he's gone over this number in each of the last 4 games. I'm always happy to bet on passing when the total is 54.