Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
After going 0-3 last week, the boys bounced back to grab 2 wins on 2 bets, taking both dogs against the 1 seeds who ended up winning outright. On the prop game we basically broke even, going 5-5 and lost 0.25 units.
Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Tennessee
Line closed: TEN -4, moved fairly insignificantly away from the model
Though this was an even, back and forth game, the Bengals were winning for most of it. They were up 16-9 in the 3rd before a Joe Burrow interception at his own 42 yard line gave the Titans great field position. Ryan Tannehill then proceeded to throw a perfect 33 yard pass that AJ Brown caught nonchalantly with one hand in the end zone, tying the game. Fortunately for the Bengals, Tannehill returned the favor, throwing an interception at the Cincinnati 47. That gave the Bengals a shot at a win in regulation, and after a Ja'Marr Chase catch and Joe Mixon run, they were within field goal range. Rookie kicker Evan McPherson then nailed the 52 yarder to give the Bengals the outright win.
Final score: Cincinnati 19, Tennessee 16 (won 1 unit)
San Francisco (+6.0) @ Green Bay
Line closed: GB -5.5, moved slightly toward the model (won 1 unit)
Many are labeling this the greatest weekend in divisional round history. If such honors are deserved, it won't be because of this game. It was littered with drops, fumbles, and overall terrible play. Neither team was able to do much offensively, especially the 49ers. Things changed around for us late in the 4th when the 49ers blocked a punt at the Green Bay 12, which Talanoa Hufanga was able to scoop up and easily score. That tied things up at 10. The Packers then went 3 and out, giving the 49ers a chance for one last drive. They finally were able to put some offense together, resulting in a Robbie Gould 45 yard field goal with time expiring to win it.
Final score: San Francisco 13, Green Bay 10 (won 1 unit)
Prop bets (if on mobile, rotate your phone)
-I felt the best bet of the bunch was Henry's under. He finished with 62 yards on 20 carries (3.1 average). He clearly wasn't 100%, and 85.5 is a fucking high number.
-Ja'Marr Chase had a 57 yard bomb in the 1st quarter. That was fortunate.
-Rodgers didn't run the ball once, I'm glad he's eliminated.
-AJ Dillon was injured in the 3rd quarter (chest) before catching a single ball.
-We had a few close calls. Deebo Samuel had a 9 yard run late to bring him to 39 yards, barely staying under his total. Pringle finished at 29 yards, resulting in a loss on his over at 30.5.
-Gronk had 4 catches. I thought for sure that we were going to get game flow'd into a loss since the Bucs were down big. However, I feel good about my prediction that the Bucs banged up offensive line would struggle against the Rams dominant pass rush, forcing Gronk to block more.
-Josh Allen's under was in decent shape. He was at 254 yards when the Chiefs had the ball with 1:54 to go down 4. I figured ok, either the Chiefs fuck this up or score a touchdown and the game ends, but either way we should be good. Then the Chiefs scored quickly. Then the Bills scored quickly. Then the Chiefs kicked a field goal to go to OT. It was such an incredible game I didn't even care that it resulted in us losing the bet.
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, -2 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (0-4, -6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 14: Success, Finally (2-0, +2 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (6-3, +3 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (4-0, +4 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (3-2, +1 unit)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (3-1, +2 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (0-3, -3 units)
Division: So Long, Number 1 Seeds (2-0, +2 units)
Season total: 33-25, +7 units
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, -3.74 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (4-11, -7.6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (7-4, +4.23 units)
Week 14: Success, Finally (8-4, +5.34 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (1-2, -1.1 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (7-5, +3.22 units)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (2-8, -5.8 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (7-4, +3.6 units)
Division: So Long, Number 1 Seeds (5-5, -0.25 units)
Season total: 63-60, +8.39 units