First and Thirty
Updated September 15, 2026
First and Thirty combines four independent measures of NFL team strength: Betting Market, PFF Point Spread Rating, ESPN FPI, and FTN DAVE.
FTN DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) blends preseason expectations with actual DVOA performance, gradually placing more weight on the current season as more games are played.
DAVE is originally expressed on a DVOA-style percentage scale, so F&T standardizes DAVE and maps its dispersion onto the common point-rating scale of Market, PFF, and FPI before equal-weighting the four sources.
Each source is centered around league average and weighted equally. A rating of +4.0 means a team is rated approximately four points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. A negative rating means the team is rated below league average.
These ratings are not a predicted margin for every game. Home-field advantage and matchup-specific factors are not represented by the raw team rating.
Beginning with the Week 2 rankings, FTN DAVE has been added as a fourth equal-weight source. Week 1 rankings used Market, PFF, and FPI, so movement reflects both new information and the methodology change.
Source Agreement measures how closely the four inputs, Market, PFF, FPI and DAVE, rate each team.
High: all four ratings fall within a 1.5-point range. Moderate: the widest gap is between 1.5 and 2.5 points. Low: the widest gap exceeds 2.5 points.
When three sources are tightly aligned and one differs substantially, the team card identifies the outlying source.
Source Agreement measures disagreement between the inputs, not the probability that a ranking is correct.
DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid together gave Josh Allen the most dangerous weaponry he's had since Stefon Diggs left.
The widest gap between sources is 1.59 points.
Aaron Donald is coming back, but Myles Garrett is now on IR. We'll have to wait a little longer to see those two together. I suppose we can chalk it up to Australia weirdness, but Matthew Stafford was awful.
The widest gap between sources is 2.43 points.
The Ravens interior offensive line additions (John Simpson and Vega Ioane) make the run defense look unstoppable.
The widest gap between sources is 2.36 points.
Fred Warner and Nick Bosa returned, and they reminded us all that they are extremely good at football.
The four sources span 3.13 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
Kenneth fucking Walker: yards before contact/attempt: -0.28. Yards after contact/attempt: 7.78. Absurd performance.
The widest gap between sources is 2.30 points.
The defense remains elite. They just ran into a juggernaut.
DAVE is the high outlier on the Texans; the other three sources are within 0.27 points.
Nobody knows what to make of Sam Darnold's glute injury. Time will tell.
The sources are sharply divided on the Seahawks: the highest and lowest ratings are 8.26 points apart. DAVE is highest and FPI is lowest.
This team is complete. LB Zach Baun was targeted 6 times. He allowed -2 yards. You read that right.
The widest gap between sources is 1.78 points.
They got the overtime win, but Tyler Shough showed exactly why the injuries to the Lions secondary matter.
All four sources are within 1.07 points.
They dropped a 59 burger with Colston Loveland catching zero balls, despite running a route on 36 out of 40 dropbacks.
All four sources are within 1.09 points.
Yeah, it's the Browns, but a blowout win in the NFL matters. The Jags kept their word from the offseason on Travis Hunter's usage - he ran just 3 routes on Sunday. As of now, Jacksonville simply doesn't need his receiving ability.
The four sources span 2.99 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
AJ Brown (high-ankle) is on IR and Drake Maye made 3 costly decisions that blew the game. Given that their opponent ended up being Drew Lock, New England needs to come out with a win there.
All four sources are within 1.49 points.
Cincy scored 33 with Chase catching just 2 balls for 12 yards. The defensive line looks very much improved. My take: they'll climb higher, and soon.
All four sources are within 1.26 points.
The Mike McDaniel effect was absent Week 1. The Chargers offense finished 26th in EPA/play this week.
The widest gap between sources is 2.04 points.
It's on the road, but losing to Carson Wentz is far from ideal.
The four sources span 3.19 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
The Cowboys had the Giants on SNF. Their defense finished 31st in EPA/play. I won't even bother going into what went wrong - it was all bad.
PFF is the low outlier on the Cowboys; the other three sources are within 0.71 points.
The Broncos defense lost to Kenneth Walker and other lesser important Chiefs players.
The four sources span 3.01 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.
Kyler Murray is in concussion protocol, but that hit was ugly. I wouldn't be surprised to see him miss another week. On defense, crazy ass Brian Flores blitzed the Packers on 87% of dropbacks.
The widest gap between sources is 1.67 points.
DT Calijah Kancey was a first round pick in 2023, and has been an utter disappointment so far. He had a strong start to the year, totaling 4 pressures.
PFF is the low outlier on the Buccaneers; the other three sources are within 0.62 points.
Not ideal for the offensive line - Aaron Rodgers was pressured on 17 dropbacks yesterday against a Falcons defense missing both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. He wasn’t pressured that many times in a single game all of last season.
All four sources are within 0.95 points.
Give credit to the CTE boys, both Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo played well. Also promising, Malik Nabers (ACL), who literally said he didn't know if he was going to play until just hours before kickoff, ran a route on 24/34 dropbacks. Also, this pass-rush is quite good.
FPI is the high outlier on the Giants; the other three sources are within 0.97 points.
Tough loss to the Eagles, but Jayden Daniels being back has to make Commanders fans feel optimistic.
All four sources are within 0.94 points.
The Colts ran man-coverage at a 65% rate, by far the most in Week 1 (Chicago was second at 51.6%). It's understandable given their corners, but it'll be interesting to see if Lou Anarumo dials it back after that performance against Baltimore.
DAVE is the high outlier on the Colts; the other three sources are within 0.85 points.
It's difficult to win games when you give up 59 points. The bright side is both tackles (Rasheed Walker and Monroe Freeling), who were thrust into starting roles due to injury, both played well. But yeah, 59 points is a lot.
All four sources are within 1.29 points.
Bijan Robinson was quite literally the entire team last week. Credit to their defense, which finished 3rd in EPA/play last week despite losing to Pittsburgh.
The sources are sharply divided on the Falcons: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.51 points apart. PFF is highest and DAVE is lowest.
Saints fans should be encouraged by Tyler Shough, especially given what he's working with.
The four sources span 3.38 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
Fernando Mendoza watch is on. Kirk Cousins lost to the Dolphins and averaged 5.3 YPA and 2 picks. They ranked 20th in EPA/play this week.
All four sources are within 1.28 points.
Geno Smith rocks. Will McDonald IV finished with 5 pressures. The Jets remind us all that players do not tank.
The four sources span 2.75 points, from DAVE at the high end to Market at the low end.
A convincing win for the Cardinals. They finished 8th best on the week with a 42.9% pressure rate.
The sources are sharply divided on the Cardinals: the highest and lowest ratings are 6.46 points apart. DAVE is highest and Market is lowest.
The bad news is you lost to the Jets. The other bad news is Cam Ward also played terribly.
Market is the high outlier on the Titans; the other three sources are within 0.59 points.
Ouch.
The four sources span 3.62 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
The Dolphins won convincingly over Las Vegas. They'll need immense help from rookies, and they got it. WR Caleb Douglas (3rd round, Texas Tech), LG Kadyn Proctor (12th overall, Bama), and S Dante Trader Jr. (5th round, Maryland) all played well.
The four sources span 3.80 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.
