DomModel is officially live for Week 1. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a bet strength of 1.0 or better.
This week, the model found 3 games with a strength of 1 or better, and we're going with all three.
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
DomModel Strength: 1.2
FirstAndThirty Recommendation: Ravens -8.5
Quick Thoughts: The Ravens landed at 3 on the FAT Power Rankings. The improvements along their offensive line with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry make their run game quite scary. For the Saints, Tyler Shough looked great in week 1, but he did it against a very banged up Lions secondary.
The best price I'm seeing is at BAL -8 -110 at Fanatics.
New York Jets +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
DomModel Strength: 1.1
FirstAndThirty Recommendation: Jets +3.5
Quick Thoughts: I don't love betting a team after a surprisingly convincing win, but we're team model here. We also have to keep in mind that the model does not account for hooks, and the Jets are on the correct side of it at +3.5. DK is currently offering +4.5 at -120.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
DomModel Strength: 1.9 — Strongest Signal of the Week
FirstAndThirty Recommendation: Buccaneers -8.5
Quick thoughts: We are fading the Browns yet again. I'm noticing a pattern here.
Fanatics has TB -8 at -110.
