First and Thirty’s Week 9 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

· Week 9 2026,Power Rankings

First and Thirty

Week 9 NFL Power Rankings

Updated November 4, 2026

How the ratings work

First and Thirty combines four independent measures of NFL team strength: Betting Market, PFF Point Spread Rating, ESPN FPI, and FTN DAVE.

FTN DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) blends preseason expectations with actual DVOA performance, gradually placing more weight on the current season as more games are played.

DAVE is originally expressed on a DVOA-style percentage scale, so F&T standardizes DAVE and maps its dispersion onto the common point-rating scale of Market, PFF, and FPI before equal-weighting the four sources.

Each source is centered around league average and weighted equally. A rating of +4.0 means a team is rated approximately four points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. A negative rating means the team is rated below league average.

These ratings are not a predicted margin for every game. Home-field advantage and matchup-specific factors are not represented by the raw team rating.

What is Source Agreement?

Source Agreement measures how closely the four inputs, Market, PFF, FPI and DAVE, rate each team.

High: all four ratings fall within a 1.5-point range. Moderate: the widest gap is between 1.5 and 2.5 points. Low: the widest gap exceeds 2.5 points.

When three sources are tightly aligned and one differs substantially, the team card identifies the outlying source.

Source Agreement measures disagreement between the inputs, not the probability that a ranking is correct.

1 —

San Francisco 49ers

Elite HIGH AGREEMENT
+5.85
Market #2 PFF #4 FPI #1 DAVE #1

All four sources are within 1.39 points.

2 ▲ 1

Buffalo Bills

Elite MODERATE AGREEMENT
+5.62
Market #3 PFF #2 FPI #2 DAVE #3

The widest gap between sources is 1.54 points.

3 ▲ 3

Jacksonville Jaguars

Elite LOW AGREEMENT
+5.40
Market #1 PFF #6 FPI #2 DAVE #4

The four sources span 2.77 points, from Market at the high end to PFF at the low end.

4 —

Los Angeles Rams

Elite LOW AGREEMENT
+5.36
Market #4 PFF #1 FPI #5 DAVE #2

The four sources span 2.79 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

5 ▲ 2

Chicago Bears

Elite MODERATE AGREEMENT
+4.72
Market #6 PFF #3 FPI #4 DAVE #5

The widest gap between sources is 2.12 points.

6 ▼ 1

Kansas City Chiefs

Elite HIGH AGREEMENT
+4.03
Market #5 PFF #5 FPI #7 DAVE #7

All four sources are within 0.63 points.

7 ▲ 1

Cincinnati Bengals

Contender MODERATE AGREEMENT
+3.57
Market #11 PFF #11 FPI #5 DAVE #5

The widest gap between sources is 1.84 points.

8 ▲ 2

New England Patriots

Contender HIGH AGREEMENT
+3.19
Market #10 PFF #9 FPI #8 DAVE #10

All four sources are within 0.51 points.

9 ▲ 4

Denver Broncos

Contender HIGH AGREEMENT
+3.00
Market #8 PFF #10 FPI #9 DAVE #12

All four sources are within 1.01 points.

10 ▲ 2

Detroit Lions

Contender MODERATE AGREEMENT
+2.67
Market #12 PFF #7 FPI #11 DAVE #14

The widest gap between sources is 1.97 points.

11 —

Houston Texans

Contender MODERATE AGREEMENT
+2.54
Market #9 PFF #15 FPI #14 DAVE #8

The widest gap between sources is 2.30 points.

12 ▼ 10

Seattle Seahawks

Above Average LOW AGREEMENT
+2.33
Market #7 PFF #8 FPI #17 DAVE #9

FPI is the low outlier on the Seahawks; the other three sources are within 0.32 points.

13 ▲ 4

Green Bay Packers

Above Average MODERATE AGREEMENT
+1.42
Market #13 PFF #14 FPI #13 DAVE #17

DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.56 points.

14 ▲ 4

Pittsburgh Steelers

Above Average MODERATE AGREEMENT
+1.38
Market #15 PFF #13 FPI #16 DAVE #13

The widest gap between sources is 1.82 points.

15 ▲ 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Above Average LOW AGREEMENT
+1.38
Market #18 PFF #16 FPI #9 DAVE #11

The four sources span 3.82 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

16 ▼ 1

Minnesota Vikings

Above Average HIGH AGREEMENT
+1.09
Market #16 PFF #12 FPI #15 DAVE #16

All four sources are within 1.47 points.

17 ▼ 3

Dallas Cowboys

Above Average MODERATE AGREEMENT
+1.05
Market #14 PFF #17 FPI #12 DAVE #15

The widest gap between sources is 2.27 points.

18 ▲ 2

Carolina Panthers

Below Average MODERATE AGREEMENT
-1.24
Market #17 PFF #22 FPI #18 DAVE #19

The widest gap between sources is 1.94 points.

19 —

Atlanta Falcons

Below Average LOW AGREEMENT
-1.46
Market #19 PFF #18 FPI #24 DAVE #18

FPI is the low outlier on the Falcons; the other three sources are within 0.58 points.

20 ▲ 2

Washington Commanders

Below Average HIGH AGREEMENT
-1.82
Market #20 PFF #20 FPI #22 DAVE #20

All four sources are within 1.10 points.

21 ▲ 3

Las Vegas Raiders

Poor HIGH AGREEMENT
-2.75
Market #25 PFF #23 FPI #21 DAVE #23

All four sources are within 1.21 points.

22 ▲ 3

New York Giants

Poor LOW AGREEMENT
-2.75
Market #21 PFF #19 FPI #26 DAVE #26

The four sources span 3.44 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

23 ▼ 2

Los Angeles Chargers

Poor LOW AGREEMENT
-2.78
Market #24 PFF #21 FPI #18 DAVE #29

The four sources span 4.09 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

24 ▲ 2

New York Jets

Poor MODERATE AGREEMENT
-3.53
Market #28 PFF #27 FPI #24 DAVE #22

The widest gap between sources is 2.12 points.

25 ▼ 2

Indianapolis Colts

Poor LOW AGREEMENT
-3.69
Market #30 PFF #24 FPI #20 DAVE #24

The four sources span 4.23 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

26 ▼ 17

Baltimore Ravens

Poor MODERATE AGREEMENT
-3.99
Market #23 PFF #26 FPI #28 DAVE #27

Market is the high outlier on the Ravens; the other three sources are within 0.32 points.

27 ▲ 1

New Orleans Saints

Bottom Tier LOW AGREEMENT
-4.00
Market #22 PFF #30 FPI #23 DAVE #31

The four sources span 3.40 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

28 ▲ 1

Arizona Cardinals

Bottom Tier LOW AGREEMENT
-4.01
Market #27 PFF #29 FPI #27 DAVE #21

The four sources span 3.12 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

29 ▼ 2

Cleveland Browns

Bottom Tier MODERATE AGREEMENT
-4.14
Market #26 PFF #25 FPI #29 DAVE #25

FPI is the low outlier on the Browns; the other three sources are within 0.96 points.

30 —

Philadelphia Eagles

Bottom Tier MODERATE AGREEMENT
-5.43
Market #32 PFF #28 FPI #29 DAVE #28

Market is the low outlier on the Eagles; the other three sources are within 0.87 points.

31 —

Tennessee Titans

Bottom Tier LOW AGREEMENT
-5.93
Market #29 PFF #31 FPI #29 DAVE #32

The four sources span 2.55 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

32 —

Miami Dolphins

Bottom Tier LOW AGREEMENT
-7.07
Market #31 PFF #32 FPI #32 DAVE #30

The four sources span 3.78 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

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