Upcoming wagers are selected by comparing a de-vigged Pinnacle reference with odds at Massachusetts sportsbooks. Posted to dommodel.bet.
Some thoughts that have nothing to do with the modeling process:
Miami +290 moneyline
-The Dolphins are dead last on my power rankings, but pinnacle places this at +251. Getting it at +290 is simply too good of a price to pass up, and that's ultimately what the model is all about.
-Scheme advantage: The Dolphins have a slight positive EPA (0.03)/DB against cover-1, and the Lions play cover-1 8th most in the NFL.
-The Lions defense is improving since Brian Branch returned, but they're still 30th in EPA/play allowed, 25th in success rate allowed, and 29th in explosive play rate allowed.
-The Dolphins defense is an equal shit show, ranking 31st in EPA/play allowed, 30th in success rate, and 17th in explosive play rate allowed. This game has a total of 50 for a reason.
-The only good thing the Lions do well is generate pressure (they had Aidan Hutchinson). They rank 5th in pressure rate over expectation. Malik Willis has been under pressure more often than any quarterback in football (45.5%).
Bengals -155 moneyline vs Atlanta
-Pinnacle has this at -172.
-The Falcons defense has been shockingly good at generating pressure, ranking 2nd in pressure rate over expectation. They should also return James Pearce Jr from suspension.
-That said, Joe Burrow isn't an easy quarterback to get after. The offensive line (especially RT Amarius Mims) has played well, and Burrow gets rid of the ball relatively quickly (2.36 seconds on average). Burrow has been under pressure on 30.8% of dropbacks, 5th fewest in the NFL.
-On the other side, the Falcons offense has been under pressure 2nd most often. The Bengals are 2nd in pressure rate.
-The Bengals have the best intermediate passing (10-19 yards) EPA/play. The Falcons are 30th in defending said passes.
Commanders +5.5 against the Rams
-This is also +5.5 on Pinnacle, but you have to pay -116. We're getting it at -102.
-Myles Garrett (knee) is back practicing this week (limited), and has a chance to return for the first time since his week 1 injury. His status is uncertain.
-It's no fun that Terry McLaurin is out for the year, but the top 3 remaining Commanders receivers have been better than expected - Treylon Burks (1.74 yards per route run), Antonio Williams (1.57) and Stef Diggs (1.53) all have respectable numbers.
-The Rams have a slight negative EPA/dropback (-0.02) vs cover 2. The Commanders play cover 2 at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (67.6%).
-The Commanders defense is 21st in EPA/play allowed, although they are significantly better against the run (7th) than the pass (22nd). The Rams offense has been better rushing (4th in EPA/play) than passing (14th).
Jets moneyline +440 over the Chiefs
-You read that right.
-Would be an objectively hilarious win.
-Pinnacle has the Jets at +353. A massive disagreement.
-I don't have too many nice things to say about this matchup, but I'll try: the Jets deep passing game is 4th in EPA/play. The Chiefs rank 30th in defending deep passes.
-Geno Smith has been a baller as a deep passer. His 95.8 PFF grade on passes of 20+ yards is 2nd in the NFL. He has 30 attempts (6th most), completing 56.7% of his passes (2nd), for 583 yards (3rd), averaging 19.4 YPA (2nd), with 5 touchdowns and 2 picks.
-The Chiefs defense is quite good (8th in EPA/play allowed), but they're 28th in pressure rate over expectation, 25th in pressures, and dead last in sacks.
