When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Andy Dalton o214.5 passing yards +104 (Caesars): Dalton is up against a Steelers defense that is getting back TJ Watt, but they also lost S Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendicitis). Their secondary was weak enough as is, and the Saints get a huge boost to their passing attack with Jarvis Landry (ankle) returning. His projection is far higher than this. Take the over.
Alvin Kamara u66.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): This number is just too high. It matches or is slightly higher than mean projections. Kamara is up against a Steelers defense that has been far better against the run (11th in DVOA) than the pass (21st).
Pat Mahomes u304.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Yes, betting against Mahomes -- particularly up against the Jags secondary -- seems suicidal. The reality is everyone sees Pat Mahomes in a good matchup and snap takes his over. That has driven this line too high. Zig when they zag.
Zay Jones u44.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): This number is simply too high for Jones against the Chiefs defense. Projections are consistently right at or under this number.
Amon-Ra St. Brown u74.5 receiving yards -106 (Caesars): As is this number. Granted, St. Brown is up against the Bears pass defense, which is one of the worst in the league. Even still, we're after the price vs projections.
Gabe Davis o45.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Davis is up against the Vikings who are without key cornerback Cameron Dantzler (ankle). It also appears Josh Allen (elbow) is going to play, as the Bills did not elevate a QB from their practice squad. Davis's projections are far higher than this number.
Justin Jefferson o6.5 receptions +108 (FanDuel): Jefferson's Vikings are 6.5 point dogs against a Bills team that has a very banged up secondary. He's projected right around this number. The dog odds aren't crazy, but it's enough to make this a bet.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Sam Ehlinger o185.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Yes, Ehlinger isn't a good quarterback. Yes, the Colts are a fucking mess right now, inexplicably hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach out of nowhere. These are the exact reasons why I'm more likely to be on the over rather than the under, as the public tends to overreact to how this impacts player prop lines. These are volume based stats over anything. Ehlinger is consistently projected far higher than this number, up against a Raiders defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and will need to throw plenty as 4.5 point dogs.
James Conner u44.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): This is a tough matchup for Conner. Injuries to his offensive line has rendered it to bottom tier in the league and he's up against a Rams defense that is far better against the run (3rd in DVOA) than the pass (22nd). The Cardinals line is particularly problematic along the interior where Aaron Donald will have a massive edge. I'm not surprised that mean projections are right at or slightly higher than this number.
Jonathan Taylor u71.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings): Taylor missed last weeks game with an ankle injury, but appears set to return. 6 days ago, the doc's over at SICscore.com projected that Taylor won't play at all. The Colts could be forcing Taylor back given that backup RB Deon Jackson (knee) is out. I agree with projections that have Taylor in the mid 60s here. It makes sense that the Colts will limit his snaps, potentially allowing newly acquired Zack Moss to get some work.
Monday Night Football
AJ Brown o5.5 receptions +125 (DraftKings): Brown's Eagles are up against the Commanders, who don't have any corners on their roster capable of covering him and rank 25th in pass defense DVOA. Brown is projected right at 5.5 receptions, so I'm happy to take the dog odds here.