Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Carolina
Line closed: ATL -2.5, line moved away from the model
The Panthers blitzed Mariota on 43.2% of dropbacks, during which he completed 58.3% of passes and gained just 4.9 yards per attempt. Drake London (5 catches for 38 yards) and Kyle Pitts (2 catches for 28 yards never got going against the Panthers pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA going into the week. The Panthers ended up with 6 different defenders getting 4 or more pressures on Mariota. Meanwhile, the Falcons were unable to slow down the Panthers rushing attack, who accumulated 232 total yards on 47 carries (4.9 average) and 2 touchdowns.
Final score: Carolina 25, Atlanta 15
Houston (+6.5) @ NY Giants
Line closed: NYG -5, line moved toward the model
The Giants had a pretty basic strategy: run the damn ball. Saquon Barkley attempted an absurd 35 rushing attempts, where he gained 152 yards (4.3 average) and a touchdown. Houston had some success offensively - Dameon Pierce had 94 yards on just 17 carries (5.5 YPA) and Davis Mills averaged 8.6 yards per attempt through the air. However, Houston fumbled twice (losing 1) and threw a pick while the Giants kept the ball out of harm's way.
On the defensive side of the ball, Dexter Lawrence continued his insanely impressive season with 9 pressures, 2 sacks, and 2 run stops.
In the end, the turnover difference prevented the Texans from covering.
Final score: NY Giants 24, Houston 16
Detroit (+3.0) @ Chicago
Line closed: CHI -3.0, line remained the same
The Bears were winning 24-10 going into the 4th, but thanks to 3 4th quarter touchdowns from the Lions, they were able to win outright. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the star offensively, finishing with 10 catches for 119 yards. The Bears again relied on Justin Fields as a runner -- he finished with 13 carries for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns, which included a 67 yards. Khalil Herbert (10 carries for 57 yards) and David Montgomery (9 for 37) also had success on the ground. This was a solid game where either team could have won, which is exactly what we like to see when we bet a 3 point dog.
Final score: Detroit 31, Chicago 30
Cleveland (+4.0) @ Miami
Line closed: MIA -3.5, line moved insignificantly toward the model
The Browns defense did an excellent job keeping Tyreek Hill (5 catches for 44 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (4 catches for 66 yards) in check, but the passing game was still too much for Miami. Tua completed 78.1% of his passes and gained 8.9 yards per attempt. Jeff Wilson (17 carries for 119 yards) and Raheem Mostert (8 for 65) were also unstoppable on the ground. The Dolphins pass rush also showed up -- Jacoby Brissett was under pressure 47.6% of the time. Key contributors were Melvin Ingram (7 pressures), Christian Wilkins (5), and Bradley Chubb (4). This one was never close.
Final score: Miami 39, Cleveland 17
Denver (+3.0) @ Tennessee
Line closed: TEN -2.5, line moved toward the model.
I hate Russ Wilson. He completed just 50% of his passes, gained 6.8 yards per attempt, and was charged with 3 turnover worthy plays from PFF, earning him a 42.5 grade. Yes, the Broncos lost Jerry Jeudy on the first offensive play (ankle), but there really isn't any excuse for Wilson's performance.
The Titans also struggled offensively (Derrick Henry had just 2.8 yards per attempt), but Nick Westbrook-Ihkine came up big, catching 5 balls for 119 yards and 2 TDs. That was more than enough against Wilson.
Final score: Tennessee 17, Denver 10
LA Chargers (+7.0) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -8.0, line moved away from the model
The Chargers struggled offensively -- Justin Herbert had just 5.6 yards per attempt, threw a pick, and had a fumble (although luckily LT Jamaree Salyer was able to recover). The ground game was basically non-existent, both because the 49ers have an extremely good run defense and because of game script. The Chargers defense had an excellent first half, which was enough to give them a 16-10 half time lead.
The Chargers didn't score a single second half point, but the defense was good enough to keep it within 7 for the entirety of the game.
Final score: San Francisco 22, LA Chargers 16
Sides recap: Naturally, this wasn't a great week. We finished 2-4, which brings our record to .500 on the season. We shall continue to grind and ignore weekly swings.
Andy Dalton o214.5 passing yards +104 (Caesars): Dalton finished with just 174 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Alvin Kamara u66.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): The woes for the Saints offense didn't end there. Kamara had 8 carries for 26 yards. WIN +1 unit
Pat Mahomes u304.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): He is Pat Mahomes. He finished with 331 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Zay Jones u44.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Zay Jones had 8 catches for 68 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Amon-Ra St. Brown u74.5 receiving yards -106 (Caesars): Oops, Amon-Ra had 10 catches for 119 yards. LOSS -1.06 units
Gabe Davis o45.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): I caught Gabe Davis playing well. He finished with 93 yards. WIN +1 unit.
Justin Jefferson o6.5 receptions +108 (FanDuel): Always Justin Jefferson. He had 10 catches. WIN +1.08 units.
Sam Ehlinger o185.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): We have some controversy here. New coach Jeff Saturday pulled a fast one and started Matt Ryan. Ehlinger didn't play a single snap. How this gets scored depends on which book you bet at. Some books (DraftKings, WynnBet, PointsBet) will cancel the bet if the player doesn't play at least one snap. Others (FanDuel, BetMGM) will grade the bet a win or a loss as long as the player is active. If you followed my advise and bet this on PointBet, it would have cancelled. I really hate shady record keeping from handicappers, so I'm calling this a loss for me, but that may not have been your result. LOSS -1.15 units
Jonathan Taylor u71.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings): Taylor's ankle is apparently OK. He finished with 147 yards. LOSS -1.05 units.
James Conner u44.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): James Connor finished with 69 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
AJ Brown o5.5 receptions +125 (DraftKings): AJ Brown did not show up. He had just 1 catch against a bad Commanders defense. LOSS -1 unit.
Props recap: We finished 3-8 and lost 5.63 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Season total: 30-30-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Season total: 49-55, -7.59 units