First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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Prop Bets: Week 13

· Brady,Week 13 2022,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Marcus Mariota o165.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM)

Cordarrelle Patterson u50.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Justin Fields o155.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet)

David Montgomery u69.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Diontae Johnson u55.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet)

Jahan Dotson o19.5 receiving yards -104 (Caesars)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Isiah Pacheco o57.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Ja'Marr Chase o73.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)

Jaylen Waddle o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel)

Tyler Lockett o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel)

Sunday Night Football

Matt Ryan o210.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)

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Recommended Wagers: Week 13 (Part 3)
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Week 13 Recap: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If...
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