Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Cleveland (-7.0) @ Houston
Line closed: CLE -7.5, line moved toward the model
Cleveland covered a 7-point spread by only scoring 6 offensive points. Not only did they cover, but they did it fairly easily. A garbage time touchdown from Houston was needed just to bring it within 13.
I predicted rust in Watson's return, but I didn't predict this much rust. Watson finished completing 12/22 passes (54.5%) for 131 yards (6.0) average, 0 TDs, and a pick. He gained 3.0 yards per attempt on 6 carries on the ground. Gross.
So how did the Browns cover? They had a punt return for a touchdown, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, and an interception returned for a touchdown. I know Davis Mills lacks big-play upside, but Kyle Allen is a disaster. He finished with a PFF game grade of 25.6 -- only completing 51.3% of his passes with 5.2 YPA and a pair of interceptions against one of the worst defenses in the league.
This was a weird way to cover, but we'll take it.
Final score: Cleveland 27, Houston 14
Denver @ Baltimore (-8.5)
Line closed: Baltimore -9.0, line moved toward the model
Lamar Jackson got hurt. We didn't cover. We at least get to laugh at Russ Wilson, who managed to lose to a team who only scored 10 points.
Final score: Baltimore 10, Denver 9
Jacksonville @ Detroit (+1.5)
Line closed: DET -1.0, line moved toward the model
The Lions dominated. Jared Goff finished going 31/41 (75.6%) for 340 yards (8.3 YPA) and 2 TDs. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be unstoppable, grabbing 11 balls for 114 yards and 2 TDs. DJ Chark also chipped in, grabbing 5 balls for 98 yards. It was also good to see Jameson Williamson in action, the rookie wide receiver who tore his ACL in the national championship game. Williamson played just 8 snaps and had 1 target, but he was out there.
Trevor Lawrence did get hurt mid way through the game. He returned, but that's far from an ideal scenario when you're trying to keep up with an offense that is in the process of dropping a 40-burger on you.
Final score: Detroit 40, Jacksonville 14
NY Jets (+3.0) @ Minnesota
Line closed: MIN -3.0, line remained the same
The Jets got off to a sluggish start, trailing 20-6 at the second half. They then tried to field goal their way back into it, kicking a field goal on 3 consecutive drives to cut the lead to 20-15. Unfortunately, the Vikings answered with a touchdown. The Jets came back on the very next drive to score a touchdown of their own, making the score 27-22. After a Vikings 3 and out, the Jets had the ball back down 5 with 5:30 to go. That's a tough spot for us since they need a touchdown to win, but naturally a field goal would have been enough for us to cover.
The Jets did convert a 4th and 10 from the Minnesota 47 on a deep pass to Corey Davis for 16 yards. They then got the ball all the way down to the Minnesota 1 with 3 chances to score, but they failed on all 3 attempts. After the turnover on downs, they forced another 3 and out from Minnesota, but a Mike White INT on the ensuing drive ended the game.
The Jets finished with more offensive yards (486 to 287) and more yards per play (5.9 to 4.3). The Vikings somehow improve to 9-0 in 1 score games. I imagine we'll keep fading them.
Final score: Minnesota 27, NY Jets 22
Seattle @ LA Rams (+7.5)
Line closed: SEA -6.5, line moved toward the model
What can I say? John Wolford and the Cooper Kupp-less, Matt Stafford-less, Aaron Donald-less Rams hung tough. Don't get me wrong, Wolford was bad. Like really bad. Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, Wolford held onto the ball for 3.29 seconds on average, which resulted him being under pressure on 37.1% of dropbacks (which is a tad pathetic that Seattle couldn't manage more pressure, but their pass rush isn't good). In total, Wolford finished going 14/26 (53.8%) for 178 yards (6.8 YPA). PFF charted him with 3 turnover worthy plays, giving him a grade of 42.6. The big difference for the Rams came on the ground, where they managed 172 total yards on 27 carries (6.4 average) and 2 touchdowns. The Rams defense had no answer for DK Metcalf (8 catches, 127 yards, 1 touchdown) or Tyler Lockett (9/128/1), but it was more than enough to cover.
Final score: Seattle 27, LA Rams 23
LA Chargers @ Las Vegas (+1.5)
Line closed: LV -2.5, line moved wayyyy toward the model
Vegas was trailing 13-10 at the half, but they were able to turn an Austin Ekeler fumble into a quick touchdown. The ensuing drive resulted in a missed 52 yard field goal from Cameron Dicker, Derek Carr completed a 45 yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams. That put the Raiders up 24-13, and they never looked back.
Adams continues to dominate, catching 8 balls for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Jacobs was also predictably dominant on the ground, gaining 144 yards on 26 attempts (5.5 average) and a touchdown. The defense was able to keep Justin Herbert under pressure on 42.9% of dropbacks, which was mostly thanks to backup tackles Jamaree Salyer and Foster Sarell consistently losing. Both tackles gave up 5 pressures each. Chandler Jones finished with 11 pressures while Maxx Crosby added 8.
Final score: Las Vegas 27, LA Chargers 20
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Line closed: TB -3.5, line remained the same
The Bucs struggled offensively, scoring 3 points in the first 3 quarters. They won the game by scoring touchdowns on their last two drives, including the game winner, which was a 6 yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Rachaad White with 3 seconds left on the clock. It was a cute comeback, Tom, but everyone knows unless you cover the spread it doesn't count.
Final score: Tampa Bay 17, New Orleans 16
Sides recap: 4-3 is a decent result, but our closing line value was orgasmic. Of our 7 bets, 5 moved toward the model while 2 remained the same. We bet two teams as dogs that closed as favorites, and had 2 lines move off of key numbers (7.5 -> 6.5 and 7.0 -> 7.5). I care far more about that then I do about the results themselves.
Marcus Mariota o165.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Mariota threw for 167 yards. Close one, but a WIN +1 unit
Cordarrelle Patterson u50.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): I'm never sad to lose a Patterson under prop (jk, yes I am). Patterson rushed for 60 yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Justin Fields o155.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Fields had arguably his best game (from a passing standpoint). He threw for 254 yards. WIN +1 unit
David Montgomery u69.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings) Montgomery ran for 61 yards. WIN +1 unit
Diontae Johnson u55.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet). Johnson had 60 receiving yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Jahan Dotson o19.5 receiving yards -104 (Caesars): Easy, Dotson had 54 yards. WIN +1 unit
Isiah Pacheco o57.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): Pacheco continues to be the next Tyreek Hill in terms of people who played for Kansas City who wore the number 10. He ran for 66 yards. WIN +1 unit
Ja'Marr Chase o73.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel). Never doubt Ja'Marr Chase, coming back from injury or not. He finished with 97 yards. WIN +1 unit.
Jaylen Waddle o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): Waddle was injured mid game. He returned, but only caught 1 ball. LOSS -1 unit
Tyler Lockett o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel). Lockett had 9 catches. That'll do. WIN +1.26 units
Matt Ryan o210.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): When game script goes your way. Ryan had 233 yards. WIN +1 unit
Props recap: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Season total: 39-42-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Season total: 71-67, -0.56 units