When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Geno Smith u260.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Smith will be without both of his starting tackles - Charles Cross (toe) and Abraham Lucas (knee, IR) are both out. I don't have a ton of respect for the Lions defense, this number is still too high.
Josh Allen u286.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): I'm not one to overreact to performances. In my eyes, Allen remains the 2nd best QB in the NFL behind Mahomes. That being said, this number is simply too high.
Bijan Robinson o55.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): We saw last week what we already knew -- Tyler Allgeier is going to be heavily involved in the Falcons running game. With "joker" Cordarrelle Patterson (thigh) set to return, there's even more competition for carries in the Falcons backfield. This has driven Robinson's rushing yardage prop too low.
Dontayvion Wicks o11.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings): Wicks ran as the third wide receiver on the Packers depth chart. Christian Watson (hamstring) is technically questionable, but he sounds unlikely to play. This number is far too low, and only at -105, I'll take the over.
Davanate Adams o6.5 receptions +124 (Draftkings): I'm seeing Adams projected consistency around 7 receptions. With Jakobi Meyers (concussion) officially out, there's plenty of targets to go around.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Josh Dobbs u187.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): We easily hit on Dobbs's under last week, and we're going right back to it. As mentioned previously, I'd assume that the market would be too low on Dobbs, leading to us betting his overs, but again his number is far too high.
Tyler Boyd u35.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Boyd is a productive slot receiver on a good offense, but I'm seeing his numbers consistently right at or below this.
Tyler Higbee u41.5 receiving yards (Bet365): The Rams have a tough matchup against the 49ers. Higbee's number is simply too high.
Monday Night Football
Michael Thomas u53.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): I don't have a narrative here - This number is appearing as too high across several projections.
Kenny Pickett o199.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Pickett is up against a Browns defense that improved their defensive line by wide margins in the offseason. Even still, I think the market is overreacting a bit too much to the Browns performance last week against the Bengals. Defensive performances remain highly volatile.