Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Las Vegas (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -7.5, line moved toward the model
The Raiders were up against one of the better teams in football. They decided to turn the ball over three times (two Garoppolo interceptions and a Zamir White fumble), a strategy that ultimately back fired. Meanwhile, Josh Allen returned to form, gaining 7.4 yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Final score: Buffalo 38, Las Vegas 10
Result: LOSS
Baltimore (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
Line closed: CIN -3.5, line stayed the same
Despite the injuries (CB Marlon Humphrey was out with a foot injury and S Marcus Williams missed with a pectoral injury), the Ravens were able to keep the Bengals passing attack at bay. Joe Burrow gained just 5.4 yards per attempt through the air and had an interception. The Ravens had a lot more success through the air - Lamar Jackson completed 72.7% of his passes and gained 7.2 yards per attempt. The Bengals were able to pull within 3 at the end, but the Ravens led the entire way.
Final score: Baltimore 26, Cincinnati 24
Result: WIN
Houston (+1.5) @ Indianapolis
Line closed: IND -0.5, line moved toward the model
The Texans defense surrendered two early rushing scores by QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson was forced to leave the game due to a concussion, but then backup QB Gardner Minshew tore apart the Texans secondary, completing 82.6% of his passes and gaining 7.4 yards per attempt. CJ Stroud simply wasn't able to keep up.
Final score: Indy 31, Houston 20
Result: LOSS
Line closed: NYG -4.5, line moved toward the model
Arizona opened the day by missing a 55 yard field goal, but then opened up a 20-0 lead at the half. They re-entered tank mode in the 2nd half, surrendering touchdowns on 4 out 5 Giants drives (and a field goal on the final drive). Thanks to the 20 point leave, covering was never in question. Hats off to the Cardinals for blowing that lead.
Final score: NY Giants 31, Arizona 28
Result: WIN
San Francisco @ LA Rams (+8.0)
Line closed: SF -7.0, line moved toward the model
The Rams hung in tough, keeping things tied at 17 to end the first half. Their offense then went stagnant in the 2nd half, which allowed the 49ers to slowly pull away. The Rams got the ball back down 10, and naturally attempted to drive the field. However, their drive went far too slowly, and Matt Stafford had to spike the ball at the San Francisco 20 with just 4 seconds left. Sean McVay, who is always looking to improve his head coaching ATS record*, called for a field goal. Kicker Brett Maher nailed the 38 yard attempt, which brought the Rams within 7 as time expired.
*I made the ATS record stuff up. McVay explained that he was trying to get a quick field goal and then an onside kick, but that explanation makes little sense. Either way, we'll fucking take it.
Final score: San Francisco 30, LA Rams 27
Result: WIN, a lucky win, but a win
Miami @ New England (+2.5)
Line closed: MIA -2.0, line moved toward the model
For the second consecutive week, the Patriots found themselves grappling with turnovers and an inability to push the ball down field, resulting in a 17-3 deficit by halftime. They were able to orchestrate a brilliant blocked field goal in the third quarter, but the momentum wavered when an interception by Mac Jones diminished the promising field position gained.
It wasn't until the latter part of the third quarter that the Patriots offense was able to get going. It was ultimately too little too late. The climactic fourth-down play added an element of entertainment, featuring TE Mike Gesicki executing a lateral to guard Cole Strange, who appeared at first look to get a first down, but was ruled short on replay.
Tua Tagovailoa is PFF's highest graded QB through 2 weeks. The Patriots did a decent job keeping Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle quiet, but it didn't slow down Tua. He ultimately hit 9 different receivers, completing 70% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt.
Final score: Miami 24, New England 17
Result: LOSS
Sides recap: We went 3-3 this week, which naturally included a very fortunate Sean McVay decision to kick a field goal as time expired while being down 10. As I've said before and will continue to say, the week to week record doesn't matter. I'm very happy about the fact that we keep finding closing line value, as almost all of our bets have moved toward the model in each of the past two weeks.
Props recap:
Sunday 1PM Slate
Geno Smith u260.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Smith threw for 328 yards. Funny enough, he had exactly 260 going into overtime. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Allen u286.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Allen threw for 274 yards. He went under despite putting 38 points up on the scoreboard. WIN +0.97 units
Bijan Robinson o55.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Robinson had a fantastic day, he gained 124 yards on 19 carries. He's already a top tier running back in the NFL. WIN +0.91 units
Dontayvion Wicks o11.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings): Wicks led all Packers recivers with 40 yards. WIN +0.95 units
Davanate Adams o6.5 receptions +124 (Draftkings): Adams had 6 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Dobbs u187.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Doubs had 228 yards. LOSS -1 units
Tyler Boyd u35.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Boyd had 52 receiving yards. LOSS -1 units
Tyler Higbee u41.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Higbee had 12 receiving yards. WIN +0.91 units
Michael Thomas u53.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Thomas finished with 55 receiving yards. LOSS -1 units
Kenny Pickett o199.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Pickett had 222 passing yards. WIN +0.97 units
Final tally: 5-5, -0.29 units
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Total: 8-4
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Total: 10-8, +1.14 units
