Prop Bets: Week 3

· Brady,Week 3 2024,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.


Sunday 1PM Slate
Justin Fields o160.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)
CJ Stroud u267.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM)
Deshaun Watson u19.5 completions -110 (DraftKings)
Jerome Ford o49.5 rushing yards -110 (Draftkings)
Malik Nabers o5.5 receptions -128 (FanDuel)

Sunday 4PM Slate
Matthew Stafford o215.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Jordan Mason u94.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Sunday Night Football
Rashee Rice u76.5 receiving yards +100 (Caesars)