Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-5.5)
Power Rankings: JAX 19, BUF 3
Strength: 2.44
Line closed: BUF -4.0, line moved away from the model
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 1 bet, 1 win as the Bills coasted on MNF to a 47-10 beatdown of the Jags. Naturally, we don't love lines moving against us, but 5.5 to 4 isn't a huge move as it doesn't touch any key numbers.
Props:
Justin Fields o160.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): WIN +0.88 units
CJ Stroud u267.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): WIN +0.87 units
Deshaun Watson u19.5 completions -110 (DraftKings): LOSS -1.0 units
Jerome Ford o49.5 rushing yards -110 (Draftkings): LOSS -1.0 units
Malik Nabers o5.5 receptions -128 (FanDuel): WIN +0.78 units
Matthew Stafford o215.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): WIN +0.91 units
Jordan Mason u94.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): WIN +0.88 units
Rashee Rice u76.5 receiving yards +100 (Caesars): LOSS -1 units
Final tally: 5-3, +1.32 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1 Recap: Big Wins, Small Losses
Week 2 Recap: All Even
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 1-0
Total: 7-5
Props record:
Week 1: 5-4, +0.43 units
Week 2: 2-5 -2.95 units
Week 3: 5-3, +1.23 units
Total: 12-12, -1.19 units