When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Zach Wilson o178.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Wilson is a bad quarterback up against a solid Patriots defense. Even still, as underdogs Wilson will need to throw. Most projections have 30 attempts as a realistic figure for Wilson, where it would be hard for him to not go over this number on volume alone.
Justin Herbert u285.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): The Chargers game against the Vikings projects to be a shootout, evident by the game total of 54. As I've mentioned in this post before, this has a tendency to shoot player prop bets far too high, and this is no exception.
TJ Hockenson o5.5 receptions +125 (Bet365): Hockenson's Vikings are up against the Chargers. This is right at Hockenson's projection, I'm happy to take the dog odds in a game with shootout potential.
Justin Jefferson o7.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings): See above for game info, we should not be getting dog odds here.
Jerome Ford o45.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): I don't think the market quite understands how high the Browns are on Ford. Yes, they brought back Kareem Hunt, but this is still Ford's backfield. Cleveland clearly preferred Ford to Hunt going into the season, hence why Hunt was watching the first two weeks from the couch. Last week, Ford went off for 106 yards on just 16 carries (6.6 YPC), solidifying his role as the team's lead back. This number should be at least 10 yards higher than it is.
Zach Ertz u3.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings): Ertz's Cardinals are up against the Cowboys in what projects to be the most lopsided game of the slate (12.5 point spread). 3.5 is a fair number on Ertz, so I'll happily take the dog odds.
Amon-Ra St. Brown o5.5 receptions -145 (DraftKings): St. Brown plays a role that naturally leads to targets. Combined with his talent and route running skills, he's a straight target hog. Excluding games where he was injured, St. Brown had at least 7 targets all but 2 games last season and each of his first two this season. Even at this price, I'll take the over against a Falcons defense that does not appear equipped to cover him.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing touchdowns +124 (FanDuel): Mahomes is up against a bad Chicago Bears defense. In a pass first offense, I'll take the dog odds here even with the lopsided spread (12.5 points).
Andy Dalton u215.5 passing yards -110 (PointBet): With rookie Bryce Young (ankle) not practicing Wednesday/Thursday, most are projecting Dalton at the helm for the Panthers. If Young ends up playing, this bet will simply cancel. Dalton is about as good of a backup as it gets, and he's up against a bad Seahawks defense, but this number is still too high. Backups get very few reps at practice, and it's unfair to expect Dalton to come in off the bench and light things up.