Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Recommended Wager: Tennessee @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Line closed: CLE -3.5, line moved toward the model
The Browns defensive line predictably overwhelmed the Titans offense line. Myles Garrett led the way with 9 pressures, while Ryan Tannehill was under pressure on 40% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry gained just 1.5 yards per carry on the ground. For the Browns defense, it was pure domination in the trenches. The Titans managed just 3 points without turning the ball over.
For the offense, Deshaun Watson had arguably his best game as a Brown, gaining 8.8 yards per attempt with an 81.8% completion percentage, resulting in a 74.6 grade from PFF. Amari Cooper had 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown while the Browns ran away with it.
Final score: Cleveland 27, Tennessee 3
Recommended Wager: Buffalo @ Washington (+6.5)
Line closed: BUF -5, line moved toward the model
Here is how the Commanders drives went: INT, punt, downs, INT, end of half, INT, punt, fumble, INT, punt, field goal. End of game.
The Commanders had two red zone turnovers. The first was a turnover on downs at the Bills 2, and the second was a Sam Howell interception on 2nd and 8 from the Buffalo 15.
You can't expect to hang with the Bills with an offensive performance like that.
Final score: Buffalo 37, Washington 3
Recommended Wager: Dallas @ Arizona (+12.5)
Line closed: DAL -11.5, line moved toward the model
Think of the money we left on the table by not betting the moneyline!
The Cardinals scored on every single offensive drive in the first half to jump out to a 21-10 lead. The defense then showed up in the 2nd half, holding the Cowboys to 6 points while pulling off a remarkable upset.
The Cardinals offseason looked like it was driven by dreams of selecting Caleb Williams 1st overall in next years draft. The market tends to underestimate these teams, as the Cardinals move to 3-0 ATS. As for us, we've now bet Arizona twice this season.
Final score: Arizona 28, Dallas 16
Sides recap: We continue to find closing line value. I couldn't be more excited about that, while I couldn't care less about the results.
Zach Wilson o178.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Never bet on Zach Wilson. He passed for 157 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Justin Herbert u285.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Herbert threw for 405 yards. He went over. By a lot. LOSS -1 unit
TJ Hockenson o5.5 receptions +125 (Bet365): Hockenson had 8 catches. WIN +1.25 units
Justin Jefferson o7.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings): Jefferson had 7 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Jerome Ford o45.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Ford had a few negative plays go against him. He scored 2 touchdowns, but had just 18 yards rushing. LOSS -1 unit
Zach Ertz u3.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings): Ertz caught 2 balls. WIN +1.3 units
Amon-Ra St. Brown o5.5 receptions -145 (DraftKings): Always Amon-Ra. He caught 9 balls. WIN +0.69 units
Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing touchdowns +124 (FanDuel): Mahomes had 3 touchdown passes. WIN +1.24 units
Andy Dalton u215.5 passing yards -110 (PointBet): Dalton had 361 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Props recap: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Total: 14-13, +0.10 units