When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Desmond Ridder o174.5 passing yards -106 (FanDuel): Ridder has had a tough year (understatement), but he's facing a bad Texans defense. The Falcons have a slight edge in the trenches here, which should give Ridder extra time to throw. Most projections on Ridder are closer to 200 yards.
Tua Tagovailoa u287.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Tua's Dolphins are 12.5 point favorites against the Giants. The game total is 47.5. I get it, the Dolphins are set up for massive success here. But this number is simply too high, Tua's projections are consistently lower.
Miles Sanders o40.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Sanders is up against the Lions defense that ranks 8th in EPA/play this year. I simply do not believe Detroit's defense is that good, and Sanders' projections are far higher than this.
Alvin Kamara u61.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): The Saints were blown out by the Bucs last week, but we got an idea of Kamara's usage in his first game back since suspension. He handed 11/16 non-QB rushing attempts, which is an excellent workload for fantasy. That said, Kamara is up against a solid Patriots defense and his projections are consistently lower than this number.
Rhamondre Stevenson o50.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): Stevenson has had a tough start to the year, and he's up against a Saints defense that has allowed 3.6 yards per carry to running backs this season. That has pushed his number too low, most have him projected in the high 60s.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Ja'Marr Chase o79.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Chase is set up as well one can be set up against the Cardinals (see our analysis on that game here). The Bengals offense may be struggling, but Chase isn't. Take the over.
AJ Brown o74.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Brown is in a similar spot as Chase - up against a team (this time the Rams) that does not have a single corner on their roster capable of remotely containing him. Brown's projections are far higher than this number.
Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing TDs +140 (Bet365): Mahomes is up against a struggling Vikings team. With a game total of 52.5, we can project a shootout. I'm not turning down the over at +140.
Sunday Night Football
Brandon Aiyuk o57.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Aiyuk is currently PFF's top graded wide receiver. He's gone over 125 yards in 2 of his 3 games this season. He's up against a solid Cowboys defense (see our recommended wagers analysis for more), but the 49ers are at home and the game total is 45. The projections are far higher than this number.