Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Arizona
Line closed: CIN -3.5, line moved toward the model
There's nothing like the Cardinals defense to get a team back on track. Joe Burrow threw for 317 yards and 3 touchdowns while earning a 78.7 grade. As predicted, Ja'Marr Chase went off for 192 yards on 15 catches, grabbing all 3 of Burrow's touchdown passes. On the defensive side, Trey Hendrickson had 5 pressures, 3 sacks, 3 run stops, and a forced fumble. The Cardinals brought it within 3 at the half, but Cincy was in control the entire way.
Final score: Cincy 34, Arizona 20
Result: WIN
Dallas (+3.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -3.5, line remained the same
An unmitigated disaster. A Sunday Night showdown between two teams that could very well be playing for the NFC Championship turned into a Sunday Night fuck show with both teams bringing in backups in the 4th quarter.
The 49ers corralled the Cowboys pass rush with the quick pass game. Brock Purdy averaged a lightening quick 2.26 seconds to throw. He was still under pressure on 29.6% of dropbacks, but on such plays he was 4/7 for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. We must give credit where it's due - Purdy was outright brilliant, in total completing 68% of his passes, gaining 10.1 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and zero picks. The Cowboys strategy of leaving George Kittle open in the end zone failed as the tight end caught 3 touchdown passes. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott completed just 58.3% of his passes, threw 3 interceptions (2 were his fault), and gained just 6.4 yards per attempt. Tony Pollard gained just 3.6 yards per attmept and CeeDee Lamb had just 4 catches for 49 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Nick Bosa was dominant as always, compiling 7 pressures.
Final score: San Francisco 42, Dallas 10
Result: LOSS
Sides recap: We went 1-1 this week. One easy win, one blowout loss. I do remain encouraged that we continue to see closing line value.
Props results:
Desmond Ridder o174.5 passing yards -106 (FanDuel): Ridder threw for 329 yards. WIN +0.94 units
Tua Tagovailoa u287.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Tua threw for 308 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Miles Sanders o40.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Sanders had 32 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Alvin Kamara u61.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): Kamara had 80 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Rhamondre Stevenson o50.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): Stevenson had 24 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Ja'Marr Chase o79.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Chase had 192 yards. That will work. WIN 0.87 units
AJ Brown o74.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): AJ Brown had 129 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing TDs +140 (Bet365): Mahomes threw for 2 touchdowns. LOSS -1 unit
Brandon Aiyuk o57.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Aiyuk had 58 yards. We will take it. WIN +0.87 units
Props results: 4-5, - 1.4 units
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Total: 14-9
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.4 units
Total: 24-22, +2.15 units