The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
Thursday Night Football
Saquon Barkey u87.5 rushing yards -107 (Caesars): I know, nobody wants to bet Barkley's rushing yardage in his Giants revenge game, which is exactly why you should bet his under (zig while they zag). Barkley's projections are consistently lower than this, which isn't surprising given the game total (40.5).
Jalin Hyatt o16.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings): This number is far too low - Hyatt is projected around 25 yards fairly consistently, despite the tough matchup against the Eagles. Since Malik Nabers tore his ACL, Hyatt has seen his playing time increase, logging snap shares of 37.7% week 4 and 44.3% week 5.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Malik Washington u26.5 receiving yards -118 (BetMGM): With Tyreek Hill (knee) out for the year, Washington didn't see much of a role increase in the Dolphins offense. He was on the field for 56.6% of snaps, which is roughly in line with what we saw when Hill still had a knee (60.9% -> 57.7% -> 54.2% -> 48.2%). The Dolphins are 4 point dogs against the Chargers with a low total (43.5). I'm seeing Washington's number as low as 23.5 (FanDuel).
Jaylen Warren u49.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Warren's Steelers are 5.5 point favorites at home against the Browns, with a laughably-low total (38, the lowest of the week). Warren missed week 4 with a knee injury (the Steelers had a bye last week), and he's back to practicing in full. Even still, it would be impossible for Pittsburgh to ignore how effective Kenny Gainwell was (19 attempts for 99 yards and 2 scores), which could lead to less carries for Warren. The defensive line is the lone bright spot for the Browns, who have the best run defense in the NFL per DVOA. It's also worth noting that FanDuel has this number at 45.5.
Aaron Rodgers u30.5 pass attempts -110 (BetMGM): I'm targeting the low total Steelers/Browns game yet again. As mentioned above, the Steeler's shouldn't need old-man Rodgers to throw much. His number is consistently lower than this.
Dillon Gabriel o183.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): And then I completely contradict myself, grabbing an over in the Steelers/Browns game. If we're going to do it, it should be with the team that is a 5.5 point dog, which should lead to more throwing. Like always, the bets are based on projections, which tend to be north of 200 yards for Gabriel.
Zach Charbonnet u51.5 rushing & receiving yards -112 (DraftKings): Every projection I checked has Charbonnet under this number. Although Charbonnet tends to run more routes than his running back partner Kenneth Walker, he has just 3 targets on the year. On the ground, he has 48 total attempts to Walker's 68. The total on the Jags/Seahawks game is trending upward (now at 47.5), but as usual, I favor the projections, especially when they all agree.
Sunday 4PM Slate (no bets)
Sunday Night Football
Marquise Brown u43.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): I have to admit that this is a great environment for Brown - the Chiefs are slight dogs (+2.5) on the road in Detroit, with a sky-high total (52). However, since Xavier Worthy has returned, Brown is operating as the Chiefs WR3, running a route on 25 of 46 dropbacks last week, with Tyquan Thornton (23 routes) also getting significant playing time. Two of the sources that I check have Brown projected below 43.5, and the number at FanDuel is higher than any other site (BetMGM 37.5, DK and Caesars 40.5).
Brashard Smith u12.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Smith is a rookie running back for the Chiefs, taken in the 7th round out of SMU. He caught 3 balls for 32 yards last week, but ran a route on just 4 of 46 dropbacks.
Monday Night Football
D'Andre Swift o18.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Swift's Bears are 4.5 point dogs to the Commanders. With a healthy game total (50), that should lead to plenty of Bears passing opportunities. Swift is the preferred passing back on the Bears, running a route on 89/167 dropbacks this season.
